Alliance, ambition and the allure of realpolitik

UP EQUATION Although they would prefer their independent space in the state’s electoral arena , their immediate needs compel them to bond together.

They are the stakeholders in the state’s secular space and share the common agenda of stopping the BJP’s victory march in Uttar Pradesh that can make or mar the dream of ruling the country again.

But they have their own personal ambitions to revive and rule the state after the 2022 assembly elections.

Thus, much as they would prefer their independent space in the state’s electoral arena , their immediate needs compel them to bond together —first to checkmate the BJP in 2019 as it had decimated them in the 2014 general elections and 2017 state assembly polls, and, second, to keep friendly doors open for a post-poll arrangement.

Although BSP leader Mayawati has not been sparing the Congress from her attacks, Akhilesh Yadav’s tone has been conciliatory despite being cut up with the Congress leadership in Madhya Pradesh. Apparently, the Congress -BSP relationship soured after seat-sharing talks failed in the three states where assembly elections were held late last year.

While BSP leaders insist the Congress kept deferring a decision despite several rounds of confabulations, the Congress had a problem with Mayawati’s demands.

On the other hand, Akhilesh Yadav was upset when the Congress did not make his lone party MLA a minister in Madhya Pradesh. However, he has been repeatedly calling Congress president Rahul Gandhi his friend with whom he had allied for the 2017 UP polls.

Although many leaders in the Congress had from the very beginning disfavoured an alliance with the SP and the BSP and were publicly decrying them, Rahul’s complimentary words for Akhilesh and Mayawati may now silence them.

Some party leaders do not rule out a tacit understanding among the SP, BSP and the Congress on some seats.

After all, their immediate urgency is to defeat the BJP as their survival in state politics will depend on their performance in 2019. No one boards sinking ships.

Political experts also feel national politics will revolve around the two pivots – the UPA and the NDA. Just as the Congress will need the support of like-minded regional parties to form the government, a third front regime too would need the Congress support to come to power. However, much would depend on the numbers of seats won. Insiders in the Congress indicate that Rahul will take the plunge only if the party wins substantial numbers, otherwise he may prop up some other leader, just as Rajiv Gandhi had done in the early 1990s.

However, the political scenario is too fluid to draw conjectures with the BJP all geared up to go for the kill.

Although two of the three parties have come together to take on the saffron power, the resurgent Congress after its victory in the three northern states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, has decided to test the turbulent waters independently. Party leaders believe the state is opening up for the Congress, which Rahul Gandhi had also said in his interview.

In fact, the end of the 15-year ‘vanvas’ in three states has rekindled hope in the Congress of winning UP after 29 years.

Had the party accepted to play the minor partner in a grand alliance, it would have forsaken its claim on the state forever, that too at the time when things are brightening up. Ironically, the Congress will eat into the votes of the BJP as well as alliance and, if it ever revived, would weaken all – the BSP took away Dalit votes from Congress, the SP Muslims and the BJP Brahmins.

The seriousness with which the party high command has taken the challenge of giving its best shot in UP is reflected in the decision to deploy Priyanka Gandhi and Jyotiraditya Scindia in the state.

Nonetheless , a triangular contest suits the BJP. However, what may upset its applecart is the SP-BSP alliance, which is quite formidable in the caste-driven politics of Uttar Pradesh.