Maha’s future looks saffron as exit polls predict BJP-Sena win

Poll surveys suggest comfortable win for ruling allies; possibility of BJP earning solo majority

A few hours after polling for the Maharashtra Assembly elections concluded on Monday, the exit poll results declared by various agencies and media houses indicated a comfortable victory for the Mahayuti (mega alliance) of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Shiv Sena in the state.

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If these predictions prove correct, this will be the first time the BJP and Sena will win a consecutive term in the state, since the formation of Maharashtra in 1960. In 1999, the saffron allies had failed to get a second term and lost power despite a split in the Congress.

This year, various exit polls have predicted 166 to 243 seats for the BJP-Shiv Sena combine and 41 to 90 seats for the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) alliance. All predictions suggest a comfortable victory for the ruling combine.

CNN News 18-IPSOS has predicted the BJP-Sena alliance will win 243 of the total 288 Assembly seats. The Congress-NCP coalition, on the other hand, is looking at only 41 seats, according to the channel. The survey left four seats for other parties and independents.

In 2014, BJP and Sena won 122 and 63 seats, respectively. The Congress and NCP managed to win 42 and 41 seats, respectively. Unlike this year, all the parties had contested the elections on their own, making it a four-cornered contest in the state.

This time, the fight is between the BJP-Sena combine and the Congress-NCP alliance, with both sides taking a few smaller parties under their umbrella. BJP is contesting 164 seats and Shiv Sena is contesting 126 seats.

Congress is competing on 146 seats and NCP is in an electoral battle on 117 seats. Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) and Raj Thackeray-led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) are also contesting on 242 and 103 seats, respectively. A political party needs a total of 145 seats to gain a majority in the state Assembly.

Another survey by Times Now has predicted 230 seats for the BJP-Sena combine and only 48 seats for the Opposition parties — Congress and NCP. The news channel has given a total of 10 seats to small parties and independents.

According to the ABP Majha-C Voter exit poll survey, the BJP-Sena combine may get 192-216 seats while 55-81 seats may go to the Congress-NCP alliance. The survey has also predicted 4-21 seats for other parties and independents.

NewsX-Polstrat has predicted 188-200 seats to the ruling combine and 74-89 seats for the Opposition alliance. They have given 6-10 seats for the other parties.

TV9-Cicero exit poll results showed 197 seats to BJP-Sena and 75 seats to Congress-NCP. They have also predicted 16 seats for others. NDTV’s poll of the polls, an aggregate of the exit polls conducted by other poll agencies, also suggested a clear win for the saffron parties. It predicted 211 seats for the BJP-Sena combine and 64 seats to the Congress-NCP coalition. Thirteen seats were left for the smaller parties and independents. Going by the India Today-Axis My India survey, BJP and Sena will get somewhere between 166-194 seats together and the Congress-NCP alliance is expected to win 72-90 seats.

Despite the clear prediction of a BJP-Sena win, NCP chief Sharad Pawar said he was confident of change in the state regime as the Devendra Fadnavis-led BJP-Sena government has failed to fulfil the expectations of the people.

“Maharashtra is lagging in sectors such as agriculture and industries. Moreover, people are losing their jobs. All this has created unrest among people. I do not have any doubt that there will be a change in the government,” Pawar told reporters.

Madhav Bhandari, state BJP spokesperson, said the exit poll results seemed to mirror the party’s expectations. “We had said it long before, that the party will get more seats than in 2014 and we will be coming back in government with a comfortable majority. Exit poll results have simply proved our belief,” Bhandari said.

Political analyst Prakash Bal was not surprised with the exit poll results. “Exit polls are reflecting the common presumption that BJP and Sena are coming back to power. People had assumed it even before the polling. The election in Maharashtra is one-sided,” he said.

A few exit polls have also predicted that the BJP may independently win as many as 141 seats which means the party can form the government on its own. It would then need only four more seats to prove its majority in the 288-seat Assembly.

ABP Majha-C Voter predicted 140 seats for BJP and 70 seats for Shiv Sena individually, while CNN News 18-IPSOS has predicted 141 seats to BJP and 102 seats for its alliance partner.