Maharashtra records 3,827 Covid-19 cases, highest 1-day rise again; peak expected in July?

The surge in Covid-19 cases in Maharashtra continued on Friday, when the state for the second consecutive day recorded a highest one-day spike in infections. The

The surge in Covid-19 cases in Maharashtra continued on Friday, when the state for the second consecutive day recorded a highest one-day spike in infections. The state’s case count rose by 3,827 cases, taking its tally to 1,24,331. Of these, 55,651 are active cases, the state health department said. The state also reported 142 deaths on Friday, taking its toll to 5,893. Of the fatalities, 114 were in Mumbai, 21 in Pune, eight in Aurangabad, five in Vasai-Virar, three each in Raigad, Nashik, Dhule, Jalgaon, two in Thane, and one in Solapur.

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Mumbai, the worst hit city in India, recorded 1,264 cases, as its tally rose to 64,139. Of these, 28,442 are active cases. The city’s toll stands at 3,425.

With cases rising rapidly, the state expects a sharp surge in the coming days. This month has already seen the maximum cases — 56,679 — being reported in the state since the outbreak began on March 9. Of the 1,24,331 cases, 45.58% have been reported in June so far. State officials said they expect the Covid cases curve to peak in July.

“According to fresh projections, the peak is likely to come in July. If that happens, it will take another month for the cases to decline and by September, the situation may come under complete control,” said a senior official, requesting anonymity.

State health minister Rajesh Tope had recently said the “peak has started”. “The fresh cases will continue to rise for the next 15-20 days as the peak has started. The situation in the state will stabilise and we will be able to settle things down soon. I’m saying this going by what is happening in other countries,” Tope had said on Saturday.

Dr Avinash Supe, former dean KEM Hospital and a member of the expert committee appointed by the state to study and analyse data and recommend new measures to curb the spread, said, “In some areas, cases are going down, whereas in some other areas, they are increasing. So it is very difficult to say when the actual peak will come. The peak may come as a wave and it would be different at different places.”

More concerning for the government is the rise in case fatality rate (CFR), which stands at 4.74%. By May-end, the state had brought down CFR to 3.26% from 7.41% on April 13. But it has risen again.

“There could be two reasons behind rise in case fatality rate. One, some deaths were not reported, as patients had died due to heart attack, but they were Covid-19 positive and some municipal corporations had not added them in their toll. This they have started doing now. Second, more focus on symptomatic patients. With change in guidelines, our focus is now only on symptomatic patients and we may not have picked the asymptomatic patients at the right time for treatment,” said Supe.

According to fresh guidelines from the Ministry of Health, asymptomatic and mild cases of Covid-19 don’t need hospitalisation. Also, only those who are in close contact of Covid-19 positive patients are allowed to get tested.

The CFR concern was also discussed in a review meeting chaired by chief minister Uddhav Thackeray. He instructed officials that there should not be any negligence in aggressive contact tracing and testing as that is the only way to contain the spread.

Chief secretary Ajoy Mehta pointed out that the spread of pandemic is found more in areas where contact tracing is less than 10 people, indicating that it needs to be done more aggressively.

Thackeray also directed constituting a task force comprising experts and senior doctors at district or division level. “We have greatly benefited with the task force constituted in Mumbai to contain the spread. As cases are rising, it has become necessary to constitute such task forces at district or division level,” the chief minister said in the meeting.

He also said there should not be any delay in Covid-19 test reports and laboratories must provide them at the earliest.

Meanwhile, the constant improvement in recovery rate has brought some relief to the state. On Friday, the recovery rate reached 50.49% from 31.05% (on May 27), after 1,935 patients recovered in the past 24 hours. The total number of recovered patients stands at 62,773.

State health secretary Dr Pradeep Vyas said the doubling rate of cases has improved to 23.1 days from 21.3 days.

The health department declared to have conducted 7,35,674 tests at public and private facilities across Maharashtra. Of them, 6,11,343 people tested negative, which means 16.9% of the total reports tested positive, said an official.