Maharashtra sees 4.9K Covid cases, draws up action plan for winter surge

Maharashtra on Tuesday reported 4,909 new Covid-19 cases, taking the state’s tally to 1,692,693. For the second day straight, the state reported fewer than 5,000

Maharashtra on Tuesday reported 4,909 new Covid-19 cases, taking the state’s tally to 1,692,693. For the second day straight, the state reported fewer than 5,000 new cases. Maharashtra also reported 120 fresh fatalities, pushing the toll to 44,248. Mumbai, meanwhile, reported 746 new cases, taking its tally to 259,857. It also reported 15 deaths, taking its toll to 10,323.

HT Image

In a bid to tackle a potential second wave in the winter, a state-appointed committee has submitted an action plan to the state health department. A winter surge is common for respiratory viruses, and many experts believe that the number of Covid-19 cases is likely to rise as temperatures dip.

A senior health department official said that they are unaware of how coronavirus would react in the winter in the state and, therefore, people have to remain cautious and follow all safety measures. An official said H1N1 (swine flu) has a similar trend, of an increase in cases during winter, however, the jump is not as high as it is in monsoon.

The health department is also hoping that herd immunity will also help tackle a second wave.

“Frankly, we do not know how the virus will react in winter. We are a tropical country, therefore, there is a major difference in our winter and European nations. Swine flu has a similar transmission pattern. Swine flu, too, increases in winter, but it is still lower than what happens in monsoon. Basing on that, even if there is an increase in cases, it will not be as high as the first wave. Like more rain in Maharashtra, the meteorological department has predicted there will be a cold wave in India. If this happens, then the numbers could go up. We have to take all precautions,” an official said.

Dr Subhash Salunkhe, member of a state-appointed committee on communicable diseases, said that like all virus, Sars-CoV-2 too will get a boost during the winter. “Covid-19 is a virus which is transmitted through the respiratory route. Colder the weather, the chances of transmission increases. Weather impacts the organism, but more than that, it affects humans. People’s movements are reduced, they remain in places where ventilation is poor, so these things put together increases the risk of viral transmission, which are respiratory in nature. It is also known that the capacity of the virus to survive is more in winter. We have to be prepared to tackle the covid-19 after changes in weather,” he said.

The state health department official added that a significant number of the population has been exposed to coronavirus, therefore there could be herd immunity. We are currently only checking for antibodies [through tests], but there is also innate immunity in humans. Therefore, herd immunity is more than what we have measured so far [in serosurvey]. Looking at the epidemiology, if the virus sees a surge in winter, a large number of people has been exposed and will have herd immunity,” he said.

The Maharashtra Communicable Diseases Prevention and Control Technical Committee has already submitted its action plan, according to Salunkhe, to prevent a wave in winter. It its plan, increased surveillance and preparedness are key points, Salunkhe said.

“We have already discussed and submitted a plan of action on preventive steps to tackle Covid-19 in winter and to prevent a potential second wave. We have to intensify surveillance through the Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme. We must now lower the guard, we must keep an adequate number of beds, oxygenated beds, and ventilators, etc so in case there is a spurt in cases we should not be caught unaware. We also have to identify potential superspreaders,” he said.

With cases of cough and cold increasing in winter, health experts said that differentiating the symptoms of Covid-19 is likely to be a challenge. Salunkhe said that there could be initial confusion but there are significant markers to differentiate Covid-19 from influenza or the common cold.

Health department officials said that the curve is on a “descending limb”, but Salunkhe is wary and said it could be a “fluctuation” and not a real drop. Between September and October, Maharashtra has seen 50.33% decrease in cases and a nearly 40% (39.98%) decrease in fatalities. The positivity rate has reduced to below 10%. In September, out of 100 tests conducted, 25 would test positive, now it has come under 10.

“The drop that we seeing right now may not be a real drop, but a mere fluctuation. If we see Pune’s picture, numbers lowered a few days ago, but again increased. We have to remain cautious,” he said.

The health department official echoed the caution and said, “In Europe, we are seeing a new wave. For us, we are entering winter, Diwali is approaching and with further unlocking measures, people are going to mingle around more than earlier. Even if the cases are reducing, the threat of coronavirus has not ended. It is a new normal. We have to take precautions to live with it.”

With the latest figures, the active caseload in the state stood at 116,543. Of the active cases, the most are from Pune with 24755, followed by Mumbai with 17,570 active cases. The case fatality rate (CFR) of the state stood at 2.61%, while the recovery rate improved to 90.46% with 6,973 discharges, taking the overall tally of recovered patients to 1,531,277.

So far, Maharashtra has tested 91,20,515 samples and has an overall positivity rate of 18.56%. In the last 24 hours, Maharashtra tested 55,347 samples. Currently, 17,95,666 people are in home quarantine and 11,969 people are in institutional quarantine.