‘Peak may have passed; gradual unlocking crucial to avoid spike’

With fewer cases of Covid-19 being reported in the city over the past few days, the state’s Covid-19 task force believes Mumbai might have crossed its peak between

With fewer cases of Covid-19 being reported in the city over the past few days, the state’s Covid-19 task force believes Mumbai might have crossed its peak between May 15 and May 31. Daily new numbers have recently plateaued, with 1,000 to 1,200 new cases as compared to the 1,200 to 1,700 that were reported previously. However, experts said Mumbai should exercise caution while lifting lockdown restrictions to avoid a repetition of Delhi, which has seen high load of cases following unlocking.

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On Wednesday, Mumbai recorded 1,118 new cases of Covid-19, raising the city’s case tally to 69,528. The death toll touched 3,964 with 120 new deaths reported on Tuesday. The number of active Covid-19 cases in Mumbai stands at 28,548. So far, the city has a recovery rate of 53.2%, with 37,007 patients being discharged upon recovery. The fatality rate in the city as of Saturday was 5.70% and the doubling rate is at 39 days.

Dharavi, one of the city’s hotspots, reported only 10 cases on Wednesday, which is the third lowest number of cases it has reported in a day since the first week of April. Five cases were reported on Tuesday and seven were reported last Saturday. The total number of cases from Dharavi is 2,199 and its death toll is 81.

Dr Shashank Joshi, member of the state-appointed Covid-19 task force, said, “Mumbai might have passed the peak from May 15 to May 31. Many deaths now are of those who got infected during that time. We may see a spurt in cases with lockdown easing up and new relaxations coming in, but we have to be very careful. If we have relaxations in a controlled manner, we will be in a very comfortable position to tackle the virus. Now, in case of Mumbai unlocking, it will also mean gradually allowing citizens to travel in local trains that is Mumbai’s lifeline. However, we have to have a slab of 10-10% to increase the travel in local trains.”

A second wave by mid-July?

Dr Joshi warned of a second wave in July. “If we start everything from July 1, we might have a second wave around July 15, but we need to be very mindful of this. Our local trains are very well operational. We can have more people travel in it step by step. We have many areas where the doubling rate is over 40-45 days, and we can think of more relaxations there, but where the doubling rate is less than 30 days, we should not give much relaxation,” he said.

Dr Peehu Pardeshi of Tata Institute of Social Science (TISS) said the city should be prepared to re-impose restrictions in case of a second wave. “It was noted that several new hotspots of Covid cases were found after lockdown relaxations were announced. This should not be the case as the relaxations should be closely monitored and reversible if we witness a second wave. We need to also keep in mind the sentiment of citizens as the relaxations should not result in sudden crowding of areas. Phases of relaxations with strict monitoring and ensuring social distancing should be the way forward,” said Pardeshi.

On June 2, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) had issued detailed guidelines to ease restrictions in Mumbai in tandem with the state government’s ‘Mission Begin Again’ announced on May 31. BMC allowed easing of restrictions in a three-phased manner, from June 3, June 5 and June 8, which included allowing opening of some public spaces, non-essential shops and private offices. However, the current restrictions will remain in place till June 30, following which the state will review the situation in the city.

Spike in MMR is threat to city’s flattening of the curve

According to the state health department’s data, as of Tuesday, there are around 1.01 lakh Covid-19 cases in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) out of the total 1.39 lakh cases in Maharashtra. MMR accounts for 72% of the total cases in the state.

Experts have pointed out that Mumbai’s economy is connected to its satellite cities, which make up the MMR. Dr Joshi said, “We can say Mumbai has plateaued today, but in MMR, with areas like Mira-Bhayander, Vasai-Virar, Kalyan-Dombivli, we need to control the cases. Currently, Mumbai’s neighbouring cities are witnessing a peak, and they may settle down by July 15. We have to consider all this while unlocking.”

Dr Joshi emphasised Mumbai was in “a very good position” with distancing norms being followed and the civic body systematically carrying out testing, tracing and quarantine of Covid-positive cases. “We have been cautious with opening up and should continue to do so, unlike Delhi. Delhi had very few cases compared to Mumbai, and I feel they unlocked too soon due to which today they have a load of cases,” he said.

On the subject of lifting lockdown restrictions, BMC said it will wait on directions from the Central and state governments. “Earlier, lockdown was announced with certain relaxations up to June 30, and to implement anything after that we will require directions from the state government that will rely on the directions of the Central government until which status quo will be maintained,” said a BMC official on condition of anonymity.