Will BJP be able to repeat 2014 Maha success in 2019?

If the party manages to retain most of the seats, it will be a significant contribution to its tally at national-level

Next week, chief minister Devendra Fadnavis-led state government will complete four years in office.

The performance of Devendra Fadnavis-led Maharashtra government in its final year that will be important for the party in its quest for power. (HT file)

While the state will unleash an ad blitzkrieg to highlight its achievement, the Opposition will question its claims. The focus will also be on how the political developments unfold in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections in 2019.

If there are no simultaneous polls held in the state (as the CM is repeatedly insisting), the Assembly elections will be pushed further. The prospects of the four main political parties in the state could be more or less similar in these two elections that could be held within a span of six months. The strategy of the BJP, for both the elections, will be to remain at the epicentre. Simultaneously, with about one third of the state staring at drought-like situation and agrarian crisis, it is the performance of Fadnavis government in its final year that will be important for the party in its quest for power.

BJP: Confident or wary?

The BJP came to power in Maharashtra against the backdrop of its massive victory at national-level. Formation of the Assembly was such that the party had no problem forming the government. Within six months, the Sena joined in and Fadnavis has been running the show without much trouble. Subsequent local polls saw the BJP doing well in the state. Fadnavis has established his leadership and is in complete control of the government. The BJP will be relying on him to win the next elections as well.

In 2014, it won 42 out of 48 Lok Sabha seats. It is now expecting some reduction in the number. If the party manages to retain most of the seats, it will be a significant contribution to its tally at national-level. As long as the Assembly elections are concerned, the party is wary about the situation — Congress-NCP combo and Shiv Sena going solo. Fadnavis’ aides say he is confident of retaining majority of Lok Sabha seats. The BJP’s victory at the Centre would itself have a major impact on state elections and retaining power would not be difficult, his aides said. Of course, he will have to handle the issue of alliance with Shiv Sena skilfully.

Thackeray and the art of criticism

Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray has been keeping everyone guessing. He shares power with the BJP, both at the Centre and in the state, but is also its harshest critic. Sensing the elections could not be an uphill task, the BJP has already offered him an olive branch. Will he form an electoral alliance with the BJP after slamming it repeatedly for the past four years? The Sena top brass is divided over the issue. The BJP leaders are amused with the hardline Thackeray has taken over the issue of Ram temple. It is something that could become the common ground for both the parties for a pre-poll tie-up. It will also help the Sena leaders to convince its voters why they want to align with the BJP, they feel. The question is: Does Uddhav Thackeray want an alliance with BJP? So far, he has kept cards close to his chest.

Opposition unity, but…

For the record, both the Congress and Sharad Pawar-led NCP have announced their intention to contest the Lok Sabha elections together. The two parties have also started preliminary talks over seat sharing. However, things are not all hunky-dory. A few senior Congress leaders in Maharashtra are still suspicious of Pawar’s plans, especially after the NCP announced its decision to contest 200 seats in Madhya Pradesh. NCP leaders too are insisting their alliance is limited to Lok Sabha elections and the party will take a call for Assembly polls later.

On ground, the cadre of both the parties don’t want to spend another five years without power. But it all depends on their leaders. If the NDA returns to power at the Centre, things could change in Maharashtra.