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Big power game on the high seas

Jan 14, 2025 08:19 PM IST

PM Modi will commission naval assets worth ₹30,000 crore in Mumbai, as India strengthens its navy in response to China's expanding maritime threat.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will on Wednesday, at the Naval Dockyards in Mumbai, commission into the Indian Navy, guided missile destroyer Surat, stealth frigate Nilgiri and diesel-electric submarine Vagsheer, together worth over 30,000 crore (less weapon costs).

New Delhi: The bilateral Naval exercise between India and Sri Lanka, SLINEX 24 (Sri Lanka - India Exercise 2024) was conducted from 17 - 20 Dec 24 at Visakhapatnam under the aegis of the Eastern Naval Command in two phases. (PTI Photo) (PTI) PREMIUM
New Delhi: The bilateral Naval exercise between India and Sri Lanka, SLINEX 24 (Sri Lanka - India Exercise 2024) was conducted from 17 - 20 Dec 24 at Visakhapatnam under the aegis of the Eastern Naval Command in two phases. (PTI Photo) (PTI)

There is also a very high likelihood that the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) led by him could sign off this month on the acquisition of 26 Rafale-Maritime strike fighters for aircraft carrier INS Vikrant and three additional Scorpene class submarines from France. The two deals are currently being whetted by the finance ministry and should be on the CCS’ table later this month. The two acquisitions have been in the works for some time and have nothing to do with Modi’s visit to France next month. But they are linked to a threat posed by the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN).

There’s been a lot of attention on the threat India faces on its land borders in the North and the West, but the government and the Indian Navy are equally alert to the threat from the Indo-Pacific where PLAN has been expanding rapidly in the past decade, especially in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). For instance, at this moment, there are nine PLA warships, nine quasi-military ships including ballistic missiles, satellite tracking and surveillance ones, an oil tanker and over 150 high-value fishing vessels, all from China, in IOR, from Australia to the eastern seaboard of Africa. Since 2020, PLAN’s deployment has rapidly increased in IOR. It was six units in 2019, 13 in 2020, 15 in 2021, ’22, and ’23, and 19 units in 2024. On average, there are no less than six to seven PLAN ships in IOR at any point in time. It’s hard to ignore the fact that, for the first time in its history, China has a defence minister from PLAN, Dong Jun, a former Eastern Fleet commander. For the past two years, PLAN is believed to have cornered the major stake in China’s defence budget, according to international agencies that track military spending.

China already has the biggest navy in the world with a total of over 500 combatants, including 355 major warships. One statistic highlights the threat better than most: China has added the equivalent of the Indian Navy’s entire fleet strength to PLAN in just the past decade. It now has bases in Djibouti in Africa, Gwadar in West Asia, and Sihanoukville in Cambodia apart from having a logistics support base in Hambantota in Sri Lanka.

This month, United States (US) Chief of Naval Operation, Admiral Lisa Franchetti, the first woman officer to hold the rank, unveiled a document stating that China has plans to capture Taiwan in 2027. This is not the first time the US has said this; the same was communicated by the US Pacific Fleet Commander to his Indian counterpart during Quad naval exercises in Australia in 2023.

The threat is clear: Beijing’s cartographical domination of the South China Sea and PLAN’s rapidly expanding footprint in the Indo-Pacific is of concern to Quad powers, particularly India. China has great power ambitions and the warship manufacturing capacity to fuel its war plans for the future. Given the vulnerability of the sea lanes and Chinese presence over ingress routes to the critical South China Sea, India has no option but to be prepared for future friction with PLAN as the latter expands into IOR with carrier patrols expected as early as end-2025. Some of India’s top national security planners believe that PLA aggression in East Ladakh and all along the 3,488 km Line of Actual Control (LAC) in May 2020 was a calculated subterfuge to divert the Indian and Quad attention from PLAN’s moves in IOR.

Under the current scenario, the Modi government has to ensure that India’s naval capacities are increased dramatically to meet the Chinese challenge that could come directly or through client States such as Pakistan in the coming decade. The Indian Navy’s warship strength is around 135, and the government has taken steps to strengthen Indian deterrence on land, sea and air with strategic platforms. India has begun work on the construction of two nuclear-powered conventionally armed submarines (SSN) and significant progress has been made on the nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) with the launch of the INS Arisudan, the last of the Arihant class, last year. SSBNs Arihant and Arighaat are already patrolling the deep with INS Aridaman scheduled to be commissioned later this year.

While the defence ministry accepted the Navy’s plan to construct seven more heavy destroyers at the cost of 70,000 crore last year, India also needs to keep its warship and submarine manufacturing ticking as it takes nearly a decade from government approval to commissioning. The 30-year-old submarine construction plan of which INS Vaghsheer is a part was approved by the Vajpayee government more than a quarter of a century ago. India not only has to enhance its warship capacities but also look at future technologies in the maritime domain with underwater drones and armed UAVs dominating the maritime security discourse.

With China today operating three aircraft carriers, India must also take an early decision on the replacement of the ageing INS Vikramaditya, which will become a relic in the coming years. Similarly, a decision will also be required on the Indian Navy’s Project 75 I for six additional submarines equipped with air-independent propulsion. The past centuries have shown that great global powers have great navies. India will take a huge step in this direction at Mumbai on Wednesday, but more needs to be done.

The views expressed are personal

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