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Keeping up with UP | In the post-Mulayam era, Akhilesh faces five challenges
At stake is their own political identity after the passing away of their community’s tallest leader, who gave them political voice and power at a time when the state politics was dominated by upper castes in the 1960s and 1970s.
Lucknow: As emotions begin to subside, realpolitik takes centerstage.
The political-conscious people of the Yadav belt (Etah, Etawah, Mainpuri, Kannauj and Firozabad districts) in central Uttar Pradesh (UP) have started discussing the future of the Samajwadi Party (SP) after the death of its patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav, even as droves of people and politicians, cutting across party lines, continue to throng his hometown Saifai, where he was laid to rest on October 11.
At stake is their own political identity after the passing away of their community’s tallest leader, who gave them political voice and power at a time when the state politics was dominated by upper castes in the 1960s and 1970s.
Notwithstanding the ongoing debate on dynastic politics, people in the hinterland firmly second Mulayam’s decision to hand over the party’s legacy to his son Akhilesh Yadav, overruling the claim of his younger brother Shivpal Singh Yadav.
“Our seniors knew about Mulayam's decision much before he actually handed over his legacy to Akhilesh. He often used (to) discuss with his close ones. Otherwise also, will my father do justice with me by handing over his agricultural land to his brother, only because he toiled with him? This does not undermine the fondness of people for Shivpal or his contribution to the party. Now after the fall of the banyan tree, bhaiya (Akhilesh) will have to work harder to step into netaji's (Mulayam’s) shoes,” said a local businessman.
People in the region admit the party faces five major challenges after the death of “dhartiputra” (the son of the soil) as Mulayam touched many a heart by his “personal connect”.
These include engineering a family reunion, holding on to the SP’s core vote of Yadavs , winning the Mainpuri Lok Sabha by-poll (the family has no representation in the Lok Sabha now), crafting a new model social engineering and stalling the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s onward march in UP in 2024.
Family unity
With people closely Shivpal and Akhilesh’s behavior closely at each of Netaji’s death rituals, they see hope, for deaths and births often give opportunity to political families to reconcile and reunite.
The Chacha-Bhatija, as they are often called, had fallen out after Mulayam handed over the chief minister’s chair to Akhilesh in 2012, for which Shivpal, too, was a claimant. Intense family drama ensued culminating in the exit of Shivpal, who eventually formed the Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party-Lohia (PSP-L) in 2018, which later allied with the SP in the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections. After the SP’s defeat at the hustings, the two have been at loggerheads.
While Akhilesh has so far maintained a studied silence, one statement of Shivpal rules out a thaw in their relations.
In reply to a question, Shivpal had made three important statements. One, “I have served Mulayam and taken every decision with his consent”. Second, “let’s wait and watch”. Third, “in the absence of political overtures from Akhilesh”, he, as head of PSP-L, “will talk to the neglected workers in SP and decide the future course of action”.
The statement, locals feel, was unwarranted. Some party leaders also feel that Shivpal's leverage has also gone down in the eyes of the workers. Yet, they want Akhilesh to take the initiative to bring him back to strengthen the party. At a café on Lucknow-Agra expressway, many workers from the region repose their faith in the leadership of Akhiesh, they wanted the family to unite for the party to revive its strength.
A senior party leader, who did not want to be named said, “Family unity is the need of the hour but the mistrust between them is acute. Both will have to shed their ego and extend a friendly hand for reconciliation. It doesn’t look probable, but is not impossible.” Another leader felt the mistrust is also because of Shivpal’s closeness with some BJP leaders, of which he himself has given enough signals.
Nonetheless, the reunion will also come with its own risk of setting up a power centre for the disgruntled lot, a situation the BJP would love to exploit.
At a paan shop in Karhal, a simple query about party’s future founded in October 1992, triggered an animated discussion. While voluntarily declaring their Yadav identity, none of those present wished to be quoted as they said, “It’s a close- knit society, everyone knows everyone. We all are mourning too,” said one supporter.
Another, still mourning Netaji, said, “We could hold his kurta till he heard us. Akhilesh is amiable but not accessible and thus will have to reinvent himself. Perhaps some padyatras in the region will help restore the shaken confidence of the public, especially the seniors.”
Significantly, some party leaders feel that they have lost a protective cover. “Till he was around, somehow the SP leaders were confident about the BJP not becoming aggressive against them, as in other states.”
The challenge of the core vote
The Yadavs of the region and east UP don’t think alike. While a Yadav cab driver from Prayagraj predicted a vertical split among the Yadavs who account for 8% of the total electors, the Yadavs of the central region are confident of every vote of the community going to the SP.
“Not less than 50% Yadavs would desert the SP after the death of Mulayam as he alone had the skills to keep them united,” the cab driver said. According to him, while Congress leader Rahul Gandhi was still a political novice, Bahujan Samaj Party leader Mayawati has become irrelevant or the B-team of the BJP.
“Akhilesh has the opposition space to grab, but he lacks the acumen of Mulayam. People are politically savvy, they vote for the party which delivers. Even Dalits have moved to the BJP after availing of the benefits of Prime Minister’s welfare schemes. Today’s funda is ‘kaam karo, vote le jaao (deliver and take our votes)’. Caste is losing its grip.”
Moreover, the Yadavs are also Hindus and the Ram temple will be thrown open to the public in 2023. He said Yadavs did not approve of Dimple touching Mayawati's feet or Akhilesh tying up with the Congress, the party his father fought for decades.
The opinion is different in the Yadav belt. One supporter said, “Mulayam Singh gave us our political identity at a time when Yadavs were considered untouchables. Why would we desert him?”
Jagram Singh of the Yadav Mahasabha said, "My brother Sangram Singh supported the BJP in the 2022 assembly elections but could not get votes even in his own village in Bithoor."According to him, 90% of the Yadavs supported Mulayam. They accepted Akhilesh, stayed with him even after Mulayam became inactive and Shivpal departed.
However, even the party’s most ardent supporters did not completely overrule division in votes in case there was a split in the family. “Shivpal has obliged many, he is close to many, and will take away votes but negligibly," Jagram Singh added.
Retaining the core vote of Yadavs is essential to winning Muslim and other caste votes.
The next electoral test
The first political flashpoint in the family will be over the Mainpuri Lok Sabha constituency, which the BJP has been eyeing after demolishing the two citadels of the SP — Rampur and Azamgarh.
The question is will Shivpal stake claim to the seat? Will he contest as a PSP candidate with tacit support of the BJP? Or will the Yadav family unite to ensure a win in Mainpuri, the constituency that the SP and Mulayam represented since 1996?
Politically, the BJP would want to prop up a disgruntled member of the Yadav family to demolish the sympathy wave created after Mulayam’s demise. But winning the by-poll may prove tough.
Some were also of the view that Shivpal will throw his hat in the ring only if the family supported him.
The emotional verdict here is “every vote will go to netaji and his SP as their tribute and not to any other party, including the PSP or its nominee Shivpal Singh.”
In their opinion, despite the chacha-bhatija dispute, the Yadav family will stay united in the Mainpuri by-poll, either by fielding a unanimous candidate or by forging an alliance.
Some are also of the view that Akhilesh should involve the seniors in the party affairs as they may feel neglected after Mulayam’s departure.
Stalling the BJP
It’s also a tough ideological battle at a time when the Hindu-Muslim divide has deepened.
It is common knowledge that Mulayam had checkmated the BJP, which was riding the temple wave in the early 1990s. He had brought all the socialists of the state under the banner of the Samajwadi Party in October 1992, joined hands with the Bahujan Samaj Party in the 1993 assembly elections and got the support of third forces to stall the growth of the saffron party.
Thereafter, though the BJP did taste power by breaking parties, it independently won the 2017 assembly elections.
Though Mulayam made personal friends with all, including those on the saffron side of the political aisle, he never allied with the BJP as he trekked a different ideological path.
People in the party acknowledge the fact that Akhilesh faces a bigger challenge today. As compared to the 1990s, the BJP is stronger and aggressive today and believes in winning the war by deploying all possible means. In a political scenario in which a resurgent BJP has literally decimated the opposition across states, can Akhilesh repeat his father’s feat in 2024 by rallying the non-BJP and non-Congress forces under one banner?
Communist leader Atul Anjan says, ‘The non-BJP and non-Congress parties will hold dialogues with Akhilesh, who is the president of the party. He has an opportunity to display his political acumen.”
Ironically, Shivpal’s PSP may not be a part of the new political front as it is seen as close to BJP. The chief minisers of both Bihar and Telangana, Nitish Kumar and K Chandrashekhar Rao, have been making efforts to unite the opposition against the BJP and they have been in touch with Akhilesh. SP has 111 assembly seats in its kitty to throw a challenge to the BJP.
This will also hinge on SP getting its social engineering right.
Political scientist Professor MP Dubey said, “In 2022, Akhilesh was projected as a backward leader while his father scripted social engineering by projecting leaders of all castes – Beni Prasad Verma, a Kurmi, Janeshwar Mishra, a Brahmin, Amar Singh, a Rajput, and Mohd Azam Khan, a Muslim. It’s time Akhilesh picks up some lessons in social engineering from the Mulayam book and sheds his image of a backward leader.”
From her perch in Lucknow, HT’s resident editor Sunita Aron highlights important issues related to the elections in Uttar Pradesh
The views expressed are personal
