Keeping up with UP | The rising political stakes of Milkipur by-elections

Yogi wants to avenge the BJP's humiliating defeat in Ayodhya in this year's general elections, even as the SP aims to utilise the PDA formula to retain the seat

Till the other day, Milkipur was just one of the 403 assembly constituencies in Uttar Pradesh, which remained in the shadows of the temple city Ayodhya, barely 40 km away.

Now, for the BJP, it’s time to avenge the defeat. The firebrand CM, who has mastered the art of poll management, has taken up the responsibility of defeating the SP in Milkipur

But the high-stakes battle for this non-descript constituency in the forthcoming by-elections has pivoted it to the country’s electoral map as it is one of the assembly segments of the Faizabad-Ayodhya Lok Sabha constituency, whose result in the 2024 general elections had shocked the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

It was a loss of face for the champions of the Ram Temple movement – Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who had inaugurated the magnificent temple on January 22, 2024, about two months before the elections, the chief minister and Hindutva mascot Yogi Adityanath, who made frequent trips to the city and launched mega development plans, and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, its associated Vishwa Hindu Parishad and dharmacharyas who invested several decades in contesting the centuries-old Babri mosque-Ram Janmabhoomi dispute. At a time when the country was celebrating “Ram Aaye Hai, Ram Aaye Hai”, the BJP lost the seat to the Samajwadi Party.

Now, for the BJP, it’s time to avenge the defeat. The firebrand CM, who has mastered the art of poll management, has taken up the responsibility of defeating the SP in Milkipur. A saffron victory even in just one of the assembly segments of the Faizabad-Ayodhya seat would assuage hurt sentiments, settle the leadership dispute, endorse the Hindutva agenda and go on to prove that Awadhesh Prasad’s win was just an aberration. the by-polls.

Yogi is making his third visit to the area on August 18 and is credited with converting a two-lane Faizabad-Rae Bareli road to a four-lane, besides a hospital. But people demand more in this backward region where farming is the main source of income, where the pride of place is the Agriculture University, and stray cattle are a major menace. However, it is quite unlikely that Narendra Modi, Amit Shah or Rajnath Singh will campaign in this constituency.

When Prasad, the new poster boy of the Samajwadi Party, graced the front row in the Lok Sabha, sitting in between the leaders of the alliance partners — Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav — the pain was visible on the faces of the BJP leaders occupying the treasury benches. The mocks and taunts add to their discomfort. With his newfound influence, Prasad has been given charge of the constituency.

As Prasad gets mobbed by people for selfies, many wonder where he was all these years. One of the seniormost leaders of the Samajwadi Party who walked shoulder to shoulder with Mulayam Singh Yadav, the 79-year-old Prasad maintained a low profile, similar to Milkipur, though the area's contribution to the temple movement was no less.

Now, both Milkipur and Prasad are at the centre stage of the country’s politics.

The significance of Milkipur

Adjacent to Ayodhya, the people had provided food and shelter to the karsevaks who thronged the temple city multiple times to participate in its liberation movement though they had leftist leanings, primarily because the seat was nursed by CPI leader Mitrasen Yadav, who not only won the seat five times between 1977-1985 and 1993-96 but also actively fought for the backwards of the area.

Later, when two Brahmin leaders won the seat on a Congress ticket in 1989 and on a BJP ticket in 1991, the common saying in the area was, "Yahan perh ka har patta bat gaya hai" (Here, even the leaves on trees have been divided), referring to the backward-upper caste division in the society. Yadav and the two Brahmin leaders vied with each other in rushing to police stations to get relief for their constituencies- backwards and the upper caste respectively.

Apparently, amid all the hype and hoopla over the apex court's Ayodhya order in favour of the Hindus, the BJP high command had simply ignored the warning signals, the first time when the SP’s Tej Narayan Pandey aka Pawan Pandey had defeated the BJP candidate Lallu Singh in the 2012 assembly elections in the Ayodhya assembly constituency. The second time was Awadhesh Prasad’s victory from the Milkipur assembly seat in 2022 after the foundation laying ceremony of the Ram temple by the Prime Minister in August 2020. Awadhesh Prashad had earlier won in 2012.

For its part, the Samajwadi Party is also not leaving any stone unturned to retain Milkipur. Since the country's Independence, Awadhesh Prasad happens to be the first Dalit candidate to contest from the Faizabad Lok Sabha seat against BJP's old-timer yet controversial Laloo Singh — a major reason behind his unexpected victory.

The by-polls for 10 assembly seats in the state are likely to be held along with the crucial elections in three states: Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand. But it is the Milkipur result which will make the national headlines as it will have far-reaching consequences on the state’s politics, the nibbling internecine battle in the BJP as well as its Hindutva agenda.

The entry of the Bahujan Samaj Party and Bhim Army has turned the fight multi-cornered. Though many believe Mayawati has taken the plunge to help the BJP by dividing votes, a section feels that she realises the now-or-never situation for the party that is left with one MLA in the Vidhan Sabha and no representation in the Lok Sabha.

The rise of Bhim Army founder Chandrashekhar Azad has also been a cause of worry. While he goes full-throttle against atrocities on Dalits, Mayawati has no member to match it on the floor of the house. The fear factor that kept her behind the walls of her home is diluting. But one wonders if she will still fight the battle through statements or public speeches. As of now, she is bombarding the media with her statements against one and all.

Azad has already visited the constituency and has built an army of workers in the villages as his party will also contest the election. And while the by-polls may be two months away, the BJP and the Samajwadi Party have fully geared up their machinery for a battle.

A high-octave battle will ensue which will test the popularity and poll management of the CM and the SP’s much-touted PDA (Pichda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak or backwards, Dalits and minorities) formula that paid the party rich dividends in the 2024 General Elections.

Milkipur is a reserved constituency, represented by the Communists and the Samajwadi Party five times each, Jan Sangh-BJP thrice, Congress twice and the BSP once since 1967. The reserved constituency is backward-Brahmin-dominated.

Sunita Aron is a consulting editor with the HT based in Lucknow. You can find her on X as @overto. The weekly column, Keeping up with UP tackles everything from politics to social and cultural mores in the country's most populous state. The views expressed are personal.