No immediate relief in sight from climate crisis
In a world faced with the need to transition to cleaner energy and fix climate disturbances, dominance of fossil fuels in quest for energy security continues
January this year was the warmest since weather record-keeping began in 1901. Eighteen out of the past 19 months saw the global average surface air temperature exceed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial levels, which is the consensus warming threshold to prevent irreversible effects of the climate crisis. The past year was the hottest year on record; in fact, each of the years in the past decade has been breaking this record.
The rising heat is narrowing the window of the already-short Indian spring. The pleasant or bearable months are now getting squeezed as February gets warmer. Climate studies warn us to brace for extreme weather events wherein the impacts of the climate crisis will blur the lines between natural and human-induced disasters, much like the Palisades fire in Los Angeles earlier this year.
Amid this climate emergency, the United States (US) has started the process of exiting the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the second time under the leadership of Donald Trump, who signed the withdrawal of the US from the Paris climate agreement on the very day he assumed office, citing the trillions of dollars his country will save. It is ironic that Trump, who has repeatedly claimed that the climate crisis is a “hoax” and global warming a “green scam”, had to see his inauguration ceremony as president moved indoors due to extremely cold conditions in Washington, DC, unusual for the period.
Burning of fossil fuels is the primary concern when it comes to global warming. The effects of the climate crisis on lives and livelihoods will continue to deteriorate until coal, oil, and gas are replaced with less polluting, renewable energy systems. Solar, wind, geothermal, and hydropower are primary renewables and have seen acceptance worldwide. Yet, the global consumption of fossil fuels continues to grow, and these will remain a significant player in the global energy market till at least the 2040s. A rapid phase-out is ruled out. Economic growth is a 24X7 energy-guzzler, and renewable energy systems cannot feed this ever-growing demand by themselves. Solar and wind power also carry the handicap of being dependent on the vagaries of nature. It is an uphill task, countering the massive energy demands of development. And with this, the hopes of carbon emission cuts needed to stay on track to meet warming benchmarks are slowly getting extinguished. Climate experts have predicted that we are headed towards a 3°C rise by the end of this century.
Energy transitions are extremely slow as the electricity demand is growing exponentially compared to the supply of green energy. The share of fossil fuels in global energy consumption has dropped marginally in two decades, from 86% in 2000 to 82% in 2023. This is too little, too late for mitigation of the climate crisis. An alarming note is the rise in Artificial Intelligence (AI). As countries embrace this technology, energy consumption and emissions are expected to increase exponentially. The Economic Survey 2024 stated that “the race to dominate the emerging technology of Artificial Intelligence has caused its emissions to be higher by 30 per cent by 2023”.
The annual UNFCCC meetings of countries, popularly known as the Conference of Parties (COP), for finding common ground on climate mitigation efforts have mostly ended in stalemate. The last one at Baku, Azerbaijan (November 2024) ended acrimoniously over climate funding. In this COP, a few African nations called on India to drop its “developing nation” tag as it is the fifth-largest economy with a large market to draw climate-related investments.
The UNFCCC, a non-binding, “toothless” agreement between nations, is left poorer after the exit of the world’s most powerful economy. It is now left to other nations to find a way out of the greenhouse gas emission conundrum. Amongst climate scientists and people associated with this sector, there is a view that the UNFCCC is now a thing of the past or has to undergo major reforms to progress, where science-based decision-making will take precedence, backed by a legally binding process.
Climate research seems increasingly ignored or sidestepped as the global economy faces instability, with uncertain trends impacting markets and countries. In such a state of economic flux, no country (developed or developing) wants to slip and fall through the cracks. It has to take care of its economic interests first.
The US, with a gargantuan federal credit bill in excess of $36 trillion, has to fall back on its vast fossil fuel reserves to boost its economy and ramp up renewable energy capacity. India, in an earlier COP meeting, had stated that it was not in a position to abandon its reliance on coal for electricity generation. At least for the next two decades, coal will remain the backbone of the Indian energy system, with consumption slated to peak between 2030 and 2035. India is also on track to meet its installed renewable energy capacity target of 500 gigawatts by 2030. But coal will remain in power, and emissions will increase — and with this, there will be a rising concern of air pollution, especially in North India.
China remains by far the largest consumer of coal while at the same time leapfrogging in green energy capacity. The country has a vice-like grip on raw materials, processing, and production in the renewable sector. Catching up with China will not be easy. As energy and economic security take centre stage, climate mitigation will only happen when the top economies up their game.
An interesting player to watch out for, of course, is China. The country’s carbon emissions are said to peak this year, much earlier than its 2030 target. Hopefully, as China’s emissions plateau, global warming may get a breather. Although the country hasn’t yet talked about phasing out coal, it gives a sliver of hope for getting closer to the target set by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by around 40% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels to limit the further rise from 1.5 °C. However, to add a note of caution: All these calculations can go haywire because we do not know the loss and damage that will be unleashed due to extreme weather. There is no immediate relief in sight.
Ananda Banerjee is an author, artist, and wildlife conservationist. The views expressed are personal
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