Because a full win in Ukraine seems unlikely, Putin is looking at one of four scenarios. This while the Russia-China equation is changing, with four troubling signs.
United States (US) President Joe Biden’s “shaky” remark at India was not only gratuitous but also untimely, coming as it did at a time when New Delhi is trying to forge an independent path on foreign policy, unencumbered by the binary it dealt with for decades — America or Russia (or Soviet Union, as it was once). Biden’s remarks sent partisan officials, experts and influencers scurrying back into their familiar corners and scripts.
A placard depicting Russian President Vladimir Putin during a rally against Russia's military invasion in Ukraine in Belgrade, March 20, 2022. (Vladimir Zivojinovic/AFP)
Ukraine has presented India with an opportunity to take a long, hard look at ties with Russia, more specifically President Vladimir Putin. With a swift and emphatic win in Ukraine now out of the question, he is looking at one of these scenarios.
Scenario No 1: The invasion succeeds, on day 31 on Sunday, or sometime soon. Putin declares victory, installs a puppet regime in Kyiv. Job done, but at loss of personnel, materiel and his equity as a world leader.
Scenario No 2: Russia continues raining mayhem on Ukraine. It has the upper hand in the war, but is unable to wrap it up.
Scenario No 3: Faced with unsustainable battlefield reverses and mounting global scorn, Putin unleashes weapons of mass destruction — biological, chemical or, even, nuclear. Hard to imagine the aftermath.
Scenario No 4: Putin gives up, and is quietly retired.
The Russian president emerges severely diminished in stature, equity and, therefore, clout in all four scenarios. There are no upsides for him in this war.
How effective will — can — he be as an ally in this shape?
A diminished Putin is not a problem for India. The real issue is the impact it will have on Russia’s ties with China. And that’s the outcome that should agitate India now, irrespective of the eternal debt to Soviet Union for 1971 and the dependence on Russia for military supplies.
The Russia-China equation is changing. Here are some of the most troubling signs.
Sign No 1: Presidents Putin and Xi Jinping declared in February that “friendship between the two states has no limits”. Question for India: Which way would Putin go under this arrangement if Xi launches a full-scale assault on India in Arunachal Pradesh?
Sign No 2: This declaration came on the opening day of the Beijing Winter Olympics. Putin delayed his Ukraine offensive till after the games to allow Xi to use the games to offset the blowback for the Covid-19 pandemic and violations of human rights and democratic values in Xinjiang and Hong Kong.
Sign No 3: Russia has sought Chinese help to bail out the economy, hit by sanctions and cancelled oil purchases.
Sign No 4: Putin has sought military hardware from China, according to the US. That’s a stunning reversal of an equation in which China was the lesser party for decades.
How useful of an ally is Putin going to be, as Xi’s wingman, diminished and discredited on the world stage at large and increasingly at risk of being declared a war criminal?
Gratitude for 1971 cannot become servitude in 2022.
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