E-Paper
India likely to receive ‘normal’ rains during monsoon, says IMD
IMD’s first long range forecast for the season was 96% of the long period average
Even as several parts of the country is facing drought-like situation, India Meteorological Department has forecast ‘normal’ monsoon.
In its second stage long range forecast (LRF) of the monsoon issued on Friday, the weather department said rainfall over the country as a whole would be ‘normal’ (96% to 104%) of long period average (LPA).
“In the second long range forecast we have good news. Monsoon rainfall over the country is likely to normal with 96%. El Nino likely to remain in a weak phase. There is chance of delayed monsoon, but no need to worry,” said M Rajeevan, secretary, ministry of earth sciences.
A rainfall up to 96 per cent of the long period average is likely to be received over the country from June to September this year, he said. The long period average of the monsoon season over the country is 89 cm, calculated for the period 1951-2000.
The department has forecast 100% of long period average for Maharashtra that comes under central India.
IMD’s first long range forecast for the season was 96 of the long period average.
According to the IMD statement, quantitatively, monsoon rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 96% of long period average with a model error of +/-4%. Regionwise, the season rainfall is likely to be 94% of long period average over north-west India, 100% of long period average over central India, 97% of long period average over south peninsula and 91% of long period average over northeast India, all with a model error of +/-8 %.
Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 95% of its long period average during July and 99% of long period average during August, with a model error of +/-9 %.
