HT Kick Off: What numbers do not reveal
In this issue Dhiman shows why data sometimes raises more questions than it answers.
Apart from offering a crash course on the role and duty of the All India Football Federation (AIFF) president, last Friday’s media conference went big on numbers to highlight what has changed since September 2022 and what has not. Since data is the new oil, this deserves praise.
It pointed out how India’s goals scored per match has gone down while goals conceded has remained nearly the same even though there have been three head coaches between 2015 and now. AIFF’s slick presentation detailed the strikers chosen by Stephen Constantine, Igor Stimac and Manolo Marquez to embellish the point that all three had picked the best available.
The strikers’ problem
Accepting that there are not enough Indian strikers, president Kalyan Chaubey spoke about the need for discussions to a problem that predates Indian Super League (ISL). (In 20 seasons of I-League, including when it was India’s top tier competition, there have been only two editions where an Indian was among the top scorers.)
The AIFF president’s suggestion to reduce the number of foreigners though could hit Indian clubs at a time the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) has lifted restrictions on imported players in continental competitions. It also comes over two years after Stimac had spoken of the need to restrict the position of strikers and attacking midfielders to Indians only.
But, like with the data on the men’s team, numbers do not always tell the tale. For instance, highlighting organising 1697 matches in a single season means little if the men’s national under-23 team barely plays – proof of what can be achieved if they played more came in Tajikistan needing two stoppage-time goals to win against a 10-man India – the top tier of the women’s league has only 14 matches, the under-17 I-League can be won by playing 15-16 matches, the men’s game at the elite level stretches to around 30 matches and the off-season is as long as the season.
Six-month season
In nearly three decades of national leagues, AIFF has not been able to grow the season. For comparison consider this: Hong Kong’s league ran from August 30, 2024 to May 25, 2025. Also, how does a 232% increase in grassroots leagues in two seasons from 2019-20 compensate for the lack of an AIFF pathway between the under-17 and the men’s leagues?
The 631% increase in the number of coaching courses from 2017-20 to 2022-25 is commendable because, as AIFF says in its presentation, “If a federation can develop good coaches, the good coaches can create excellent players.” Including futsal and beach soccer, India has 16,596 coaches with some kind of AFC badge, AIFF has said but did not mention how many of them have found gainful employment.
While the performance of the young girls and boys at AIFF’s training programmes need to be applauded – uner-15 boys have defeated a number of ISL under-17 teams and the Indian Arrows Women Juniors have beaten clubs with older players in IWL2 – it would have been nice if an update was provided on the new elite youth league AIFF said it would start with funds saved from the successful boys’ Arrows project that was scrapped by this regime in September 2022.
Taking nothing away from the performance of the boys and girls, is it also not a reflection of how seriously clubs take youth development because the season is so short?
Good news but…
Information that ₹2333 crore being invested by state governments of Uttar Pradesh, Assam, Telangana, Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland was a welcome development in a country desperately in need for investment in infrastructure. Given that Inter Kashi still cannot find a venue in Uttar Pradesh, who, as per AIFF, are committed to investing ₹1005 crore, they can call home, it would have been nice if timelines of the projects were provided.
Also welcome was AIFF’s ₹14.70 crore surplus at a time when the agreement with commercial partners is months from ending. Here too, context is important and it would have been nice if AIFF had said how much it has saved on salaries by not appointing long-term coaches for most of its national teams.
AIFF being committed to get naturalised players too is a sign that it is in step with time. Chaubey spoke of 33 players with whom AIFF was in touch. Good news, but wouldn’t it have been great if details about their clubs and playing positions been provided along with the explanation of how they got on the shortlist?
PLAY OF THE WEEK
