A night of big wins for the Democrats

Democrats were operating in a favourable national environment. Off-year elections usually mean a turnout advantage for the opposition party.

Democrats were bound to have a good election night. The prevailing question on November 4th was more a matter of degree: would it be merely good, or would it be great? The results of the night’s four big contests suggest an excellent one indeed for the opposition party.

New York City mayor Zohran Mamdani and his wife Rama Duwaji wave to the crowd. (REUTERS)

Voters in two blue-ish states sent centrist, pragmatic Democrats to their governor’s mansions: Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger in Virginia. New Yorkers turned out at the highest rate in nearly six decades while electing Zohran Mamdani, a 34-year-old Democratic Socialist with ambitions to soak the rich, freeze rents and deliver free services as mayor. Meanwhile a ballot initiative in California passed that will allow Democrats there to redraw congressional districts in their favour. That will have implications for next year’s midterms.

Democrats were operating in a favourable national environment. Off-year elections usually mean a turnout advantage for the opposition party. Such races draw the most engaged voters, many of whom want nothing more than to punish the president. And Donald Trump is acutely unpopular with Democrats and left-leaning independents. The share of Americans who disapprove of the president is 19 points higher than the share which approves. That marks a nadir for Mr Trump’s second term, and is lower than almost any point in his first.

Added to the Democrats’ advantage was a favourable electoral map. Both New Jersey and Virginia reliably vote Democratic in presidential races, although both also regularly elect Republican governors. Looking ahead to the midterms, the test was how Ms Spanberger’s and Ms Sherrill’s showing would compare with Kamala Harris’s win in those states last year—whether they would beat her spread.

They did, decisively. Ms Spanberger was on track to outperform Ms Harris’s margin in Virginia by about more than six points, flipping the governor’s office. Democratic enthusiasm ensured that even a scandal-ridden candidate for attorney-general, Jay Jones, claimed a more narrow victory.

Ms Sherrill faced a tougher race in New Jersey. In 2024 the state saw the second-largest swing towards Mr Trump. Analysts wondered whether voters who had abandoned the Democrats last year, many of them non-white and working class, would stick with the Republicans or simply stay home without Mr Trump on the ballot. That Ms Sherrill was running to succeed an unpopular Democratic incumbent did her no help; no candidate from a party seeking a third consecutive term had won since 1961. Ms Sherrill not only managed to beat Jack Ciattarelli, her MAGA-friendly challenger, whom Mr Trump endorsed, she was also on track to outperform Ms Harris by more than five points. Her victory marked a return to the double-digit margins enjoyed by Democratic presidential candidates in New Jersey between 2008 and 2020.

Ms Spanberger and Ms Sherrill are ex-congresswomen with backgrounds in national security: the former was a CIA officer, the latter a navy helicopter pilot. Both steered clear of culture-war quagmires and said sensible things about their support for law enforcement. Their pitch was risk-averse competence. “We sent a message to the whole world that in 2025 Virginia chose pragmatism over partisanship,” Ms Spanberger told cheering supporters after her victory was confirmed.

By contrast Mr Mamdani offered a light CV alongside heavy criticism of Israel and a history of impolitic comments about the police. The electorates of New Jersey and Virginia better resemble America writ large than that of deep-blue New York City, meaning Mr Mamdani’s success says little about the appetite for progressivism among voters elsewhere. If his remarkable, lightning-quick rise contains broader lessons, it is about the art of campaigning. Mr Mamdani focused relentlessly on affordability, which he did with vim, conviction and a gameness to make his case anywhere and everywhere, be it on Fox News or in numerous nightclubs. His nearest challenger, Andrew Cuomo, a former governor laden with baggage, was leaden and aloof on the trail.

Mr Mamdani’s policy prescriptions—government-run grocery stores, free buses and child care, and affordable housing—would be hugely expensive. His promise to freeze rents for a quarter of the city’s housing stock would raise housing costs for everyone else. His ability to deliver on this agenda will depend on the willingness of Kathy Hochul, New York’s governor, to increase taxes, which she seems disinclined to do. The result may well be a less ambitious tenure than many of his voters hope.

An equally pressing question for the city is how Mr Trump deals with Mr Mamdani: whether he punishes New York by withholding federal money or inflames it with an immigration crackdown. Before the election Mr Trump said a win by Mr Mamdani would make it “highly unlikely” that New York would get federal funds beyond “the very minimum as required”.

Democrats’ rebound will reassure the party, offering a signal that last year’s impressive Republican gains among young and minority working-class voters may not endure. Yet it would also be rash to read too much into a handful of races in which Democrats enjoy structural advantages. Next year’s midterm elections will be more consequential, with control of Congress up for grabs. There Democrats have a harder task owing to Republicans’ gerrymandering schemes and their numbers advantage in the Senate. California’s redistricting counter-attack, known as Proposition 50, will partially neutralise the Republican advantage in midterm House races. The passage of that measure means that Democrats enter 2026 with as much momentum as they could have hoped this off-year election to deliver.