Are Israel, Hezbollah heading for a war? What Japanese firm said on walkie-talkie blasts | Latest updates
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is scheduled to address the nation later on Thursday. Israel’s defence minister announced a “new phase” of the conflict.
Hundreds of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah exploded across Lebanon in a series of unprecedented attacks this week, killing 32 people and injuring more than 3,000. The blasts, occurring over two days, have delivered a significant blow to the Iran-backed militant group, which accused Israel of orchestrating the attacks and vowed retaliation.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is scheduled to address the nation later on Thursday, with many anticipating his speech for potential insights into the group’s response.
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As Israel’s defence minister announced a “new phase” of the conflict and explosions in Lebanon linked to an Israeli attack on electronic devices, the prospect of full-scale warfare between Israel and Hezbollah seems more imminent than ever.
Also Read | Lebanon serial explosions: Israel says 'centre of gravity' moving north, calls it ‘new phase’ in Gaza war
Diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict are rapidly dwindling as Israel appears determined to alter the situation in the country's north, where it has exchanged cross-border fire with Hezbollah since the militant group began attacks on October 8, following Hamas’s initial strikes.
Watch: Lebanon LIVE | Hezbollah Walkie-Talkies, Pagers Turn Into Bombs
In recent days, Israel has deployed substantial military forces to the northern border, ramped up its rhetoric, and identified the return of tens of thousands of displaced northern residents as an official war objective.
Also Read | Why Israeli attack on Hezbollah’s communication was a tipping point
Troops drawn from Gaza to the northern border
While the daily fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has escalated on several occasions, the bitter enemies have been careful to avoid an all-out war.
That appears to be changing — especially after pagers, walkie-talkies and other devices exploded in Lebanon on Tuesday and Wednesday, killing at least 20 and wounding thousands in a sophisticated attack Hezbollah blamed on Israel.
“You don’t do something like that, hit thousands of people, and think war is not coming,” said retired Israeli Brig. Gen. Amir Avivi, who leads Israel Defense and Security Forum, a group of hawkish former military commanders. “Why didn't we do it for 11 months? Because we were not willing to go to war yet. What’s happening now? Israel is ready for war."
As fighting in Gaza has slowed, Israel has fortified forces along the border with Lebanon, including the arrival this week of a powerful army division that took part in some of the heaviest fighting in Gaza.
The 98th Division is believed to include thousands of troops, including paratrooper infantry units and artillery and elite commando forces specially trained for operations behind enemy lines. Their deployment was confirmed by an official with knowledge of the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss troop movements.
The division played a key role in Gaza, spearheading the army's operations in the southern city of Khan Younis, a Hamas stronghold. The offensive inflicted heavy losses on Hamas fighters and tunnels, but also wreaked massive damage, sent thousands of Palestinians fleeing and resulted in scores of civilian deaths. Israel says Hamas endangers civilians by hiding in residential areas.
The military also said it staged a series of drills this week along the border.
"The mission is clear," said Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin, who heads Israel's Northern Command. “We are determined to change the security reality as soon as possible.”
A 'new phase’ of war
The military movements have been accompanied by heightened rhetoric from Israel's leaders, who say their patience is running thin.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Wednesday night declared the start of a “ new phase” of the war as Israel turns its focus toward Hezbollah. "The center of gravity is shifting to the north by diverting resources and forces,” he said.
He spoke a day after Israel's Cabinet made the return of displaced residents to their homes in northern Israel a formal goal of the war. The move was largely symbolic — Israeli leaders have long pledged to bring those residents home. But elevating the significance of the aim signaled a tougher stance.
After meeting Wednesday with top security officials, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared: “We will return the residents of the north securely to their homes.”
Netanyahu delivered a similarly tough message with a top U.S. envoy sent to the region this week to soothe tensions.
An official with knowledge of the encounter told The Associated Press that the envoy, Amos Hochstein, told Netanyahu that intensifying the conflict with Hezbollah would not help return evacuated Israelis back home.
Netanyahu, according to a statement from his office, told Hochstein that residents cannot return without “a fundamental change in the security situation in the north." The statement said that while Netanyahu “appreciates and respects” U.S. support, Israel will “do what is necessary to safeguard its security.”
Is war inevitable?
Israeli media reported Wednesday that the government has not yet decided whether to launch a major offensive in Lebanon.
Much, it seems, will depend on Hezbollah's response. The group's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, is expected to deliver a major speech on Thursday.
But public sentiment in Israel seems to be supportive of tougher action against Hezbollah.
A poll in late August by the Israeli Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem think tank, found that 67% of Jewish respondents thought Israel should intensify its response to Hezbollah. That includes 46% of Jewish respondents who believed Israel should launch a deep offensive striking Lebanese infrastructure, and 21% who seek an intensified response that avoids striking Hezbollah infrastructure.
“There’s a lot of pressure from the society to go to war and win,” said Avivi, the retired general. “Unless Hezbollah tomorrow morning says, ’OK, we got the message. We’re pulling out of south Lebanon,' war is imminent.”
Such a war would almost certainly prove devastating to both sides.
Already, more than 500 people have been killed in Lebanon by Israeli strikes since Oct. 8, most of them fighters with Hezbollah and other armed groups but also more than 100 civilians. In northern Israel, at least 23 soldiers and 26 civilians have been killed by strikes from Lebanon.
Israel inflicted heavy damage on Lebanon during a monthlong war against Hezbollah in 2006 that ended in a stalemate. Israeli leaders have threatened even tougher action this time around, vowing to repeat the scenes of destruction from Gaza in Lebanon.
But Hezbollah also has built up its capabilities since 2006. Hezbollah has an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles, some believed to have guidance systems that could threaten sensitive targets in Israel. It has also developed an increasingly sophisticated fleet of drones.
Capable of striking all parts of Israel, Hezbollah could bring life in Israel to a standstill and send hundreds of thousands of Israelis fleeing.
Walkie-talkies in Lebanon blasts were discontinued: Japan’s Icom Inc
Japan’s Icom Inc., whose brand appears on walkie-talkies that exploded in Lebanon, said it halted production a decade ago of the model allegedly used in the attacks and is still investigating the situation.
Icom exported its IC-V82 two-way radio to regions, including the Middle East until October 2014, when it stopped making and selling the devices, the Osaka-based company said in a statement on Thursday. It has also discontinued production of the batteries needed to operate the main unit, it said. The company earlier had warned customers that almost all IC-V82s on the market are counterfeit.
Among the many outstanding questions is how explosive materials were planted in the devices. If the Icom walkie-talkies are genuine and manufactured a decade ago, it’s likely they were modified well after sale to their original customers. The company can’t determine if the walkie-talkies are its own, but said the exploded devices appear to lack the hologram labels attached to its products.
The company said all its radios are produced at a factory in Wakayama Prefecture in Western Japan. It said it follows safety protocols outlined by government regulations and does not outsource manufacturing overseas.
(With inputs from AP, Bloomberg)
