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Canada elections: Justin Trudeau likely to pip Erin O’ Toole to post
Survey data now consistently points to the Liberals under Justin Trudeau emerging as the single-largest party while Conservatives under Erin O’Toole may hold on to the number of seats won in 2019 Canada elections.
With just over a day left before voting in Canada elections begins, it appears that barring a miracle, the results will be a rerun of the 2019 polls. Incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is likely to pip his Conservative rival Erin O’Toole to post and return to Ottawa to head another minority government.
Survey data now consistently points to the Liberals under the leadership of Justin Trudeau emerging as the single-largest party and thereby favoured to form the next government. The polls indicate that maintaining of the status quo, though Trudeau, leader of the ruling Liberal Party, had precipitated snap elections with the intent of securing a majority.
In a release titled “Déjà vu all over again?” the non-partisan polling agency Angus Reid Institute (ARI) emphasised this point, “The Liberals and the Conservatives are separated by very little daylight, fighting for advantage in a race that may now depend on factors not entirely in their control: voter turnout, and the performance of other parties.”
That appears to be direction predicted by the CBC Poll Tracker as it has the ruling party at 150 seats, 20 short of the majority figure, while the principal opposition Conservative Party under Erin O’Toole is at 118. If those figures hold, Justin Trudeau’s party will be seven short of the seats it garnered in 2019 while the Conservatives, led by Erin O’Toole, will drop three.
A somewhat brighter prospect is predicted by the Ottawa-based market research company Advanced Symbolics Inc Artificial Intelligence-based engine Polly, as it placed the Liberals under Justin Trudeau at 163 seats on Saturday evening, an improvement of six over 2019, and on the cusp of the majority mark in the 338-seat House of Commons, but also said the likelihood of a minority was at 66%, twice that of a majority.
Among the factors playing into subduing Trudeau’s ambition could be the continued displeasure of Canadians over holding elections in the midst of the fourth wave of the Covid-19 pandemic.
A poll conducted by the firm Ipsos Public Affairs for the outlet Global News noted that at the outset of the campaign, 56% of respondents didn’t think an election at this time was necessary and that figure has only increased, to 69%. Ipsos vice-president Sean Simpson stated that “if (the Liberals) they do win with a parliament that looks a lot like the previous one, Trudeau may once again need to explain to Canadians why we had an election.”
