Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Gambit

Tehran can cause the price of oil to spike, but it will hurt itself more.

In this file photo taken on April 30, 2019, Iranian soldiers take part in the "National Persian Gulf day" in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s Parliament voted Sunday to close the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea passage out of the Persian Gulf. If the regime does this, it will be consistent with Iran’s recent behavior, which is to go for its own jugular. Iran is run by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, so the Supreme National Security Council will make the final decision.

Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Gambit

Some 20% or more of the world’s oil supply moves through the Strait after loading from oil terminals in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Iran. There’s no doubt that closing the Strait would send oil prices higher, probably above $100 a barrel for a time. A risk premium for a possible closure has already bumped the oil price to the mid-$70 a barrel range since Israel launched its attacks on Iran.

The world supply of oil is more diverse than it was 20 years ago, thanks in part to American frackers. Some Gulf oil can also move via pipeline from Saudi Arabia. China would be one of the biggest losers from a Hormuz shutdown, as much of its oil comes from the Gulf. Secretary of State Marco Rubio made that point on the Sunday talk shows, urging China to advise Iran against closing the Strait.

Iran can certainly do some short-term damage. The shipping passage through the Strait is two miles at its narrowest and vulnerable to sea mines. Iran could harass ships with its naval forces, notably high-speed patrol boats, as well as drones and missiles from onshore.

But the U.S. has ample Navy resources in the region and can clear the mines in relatively short order. Iran will also have to think about the prospect of losing its entire navy if it does close down the Strait.

Former Centcom Commander Frank McKenzie predicted Sunday on CBS’s Face the Nation exactly that prospect if Iran made that mistake, and Mr. Rubio said on the same program that closing the Strait “would be a suicidal move on their part because I think the whole world would come against them if they did that.”

The Hormuz threat underscores the wisdom of President Trump’s decision to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program. Imagine if Iran had nuclear weapons and threatened to close down the Strait to leverage some geopolitical or military advantage. The Western response to clear the Strait would be a much higher risk.

“There are no planned military operations right now against Iran unless—unless they mess around and they attack American[s] or American interests,” Mr. Rubio said. “Then they’re going to have a problem. Then they’re going to have a problem, and I’m not going to broadcast what those problems are.”

Mr. Trump is again offering Iran’s leaders a choice of negotiating peace or retaliating and inviting more harm to their country. They learned the hard way on Saturday that doubting Mr. Trump’s red lines is a mistake.