United States weather forecaster sees 65% chance of El Nino from September

Chances of the emergence of the El Nino weather pattern have increased to 65% during the fall (September to November) and 70% during the winter 2018-19 (December to February), a US government weather forecaster said on Thursday.

Chances of the emergence of the El Nino weather pattern have increased to 65% during the fall (September to November) and 70% during the winter 2018-19 (December to February), a US government weather forecaster said on Thursday.

The last El Niño, a pattern that brings a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific every few years, was linked to crop damage, fires and flash floods before it went away in 2016. (AFP/File Photo)

The last El Niño, a pattern that brings a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific every few years, was linked to crop damage, fires and flash floods before it went away in 2016.

“The forecaster consensus favours the onset of El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall, which would then continue through winter,” the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in a monthly forecast.

Last month, the weather forecaster put the chances of El Nino emerging at 50% during the fall and 65% during the winter. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Neutral conditions are likely to prevail through the northern hemisphere this summer, the report said.

Neutral refers to those periods in which neither El Niño nor La Niña is present.