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'US Election Nostradamus' reveals why Trump's 'disastrous pick' JD Vance would be a ‘horror show’

Professor Allan Lichtman, a forecaster dubbed as the 'Nostradamus' of presidential elections, shared his thoughts on Trump's 'disastrous pick' JD Vance.

Published on: Aug 3, 2024, 16:25:45 IST
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Professor Allan Lichtman, a forecaster dubbed as the 'Nostradamus' of US presidential elections, shared his thoughts on how Ohio Senator JD Vance might influence the outcome of the 2024 battle between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

US elections: Allan Lichtman claims on his YouTube channel that Vance would be a “horror show” if Trump were incapacitated and he had to take over as president. (Allan Lichtman/YouTube/AP)
US elections: Allan Lichtman claims on his YouTube channel that Vance would be a “horror show” if Trump were incapacitated and he had to take over as president. (Allan Lichtman/YouTube/AP)

The American University professor Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every presidential election since 40th President Ronald Reagan's victory in 1984.

US VP choice ‘incredibly important’ but Vance is a ‘disastrous pick’: Lichtman

Lichtman claims on his YouTube channel that Vance would be a “horror show” if Trump were incapacitated and he had to take over as president.

While stressing that vice presidential selection doesn't always swing the election, he called VP choice “incredibly important”. “That's why JD Vance was such a disastrous pick; he would be a horror show as president.”

The purpose of choosing a running mate, according to him, is to have a successor in case the president steps down or dies, which has happened nine times in US history.

Speaking to Newsweek, he said Vance poses a challenge because his “views are even more extreme” than those of Trump.

“For example, on aid to Ukraine or wanting a national prohibition on abortion with no exception for rape, incest, or health of the mother. And Vance has become a lightning rod for criticism,” he stated.

Also Read: Trump says JD Vance ‘feels family is good’ amid ‘childless cat ladies' row

Here's what Lichtman's model has to say on Kamala Harris

The Lichtman's model, which takes into account thirteen points, or “keys”, currently projects that Harris is on the course of victory. Harris, who is scheduled to reveal her vice presidential candidate on Monday, has experienced an increase in her poll numbers.

The fresh impetus given to Harris' campaign might help her in a number of ways, such as reducing the number of voters who support third-party candidate Robert Kennedy Jr, Lichtman told C-SPAN.

He added that Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race and Harris' bid for the White House have a “mixed” impact. “But it doesn't fundamentally change my assessment that a lot would have to go wrong for the Democrats to lose.”

Lichtman further announced that he will release his formal election forecast after Democratic convention.

“I plan to make my official prediction in August after the Democratic convention. See my assessment below on the 13 Keys Tracker on where The Keys stand NOW,” he wrote on X.

  • Shweta Kukreti
    ABOUT THE AUTHOR
    Shweta Kukreti

    Shweta Kukreti has over 8 years of experience in covering Indian and world politics. She joined the Hindustan Times in 2024 and is primarily assigned to the US desk. She currently works as Deputy Chief Content Producer and reports on a wide range of topics, including US politics, immigration issues (especially H-1B visa) and major global events. Shweta strongly emphasizes team operations, which encompasses monitoring news, delegating tasks, editing, developing comprehensive coverage strategies, and crafting engaging, and data-informed narratives. She received the Digi Star Award at the Hindustan Times within a year of joining for her broad coverage of US politics. In 2025, she earned both a promotion and a redesignation, a significant achievement recognising her contributions and the strong value she brings to the team. She has previously worked with the Indian Express, HTDS, ANI and Republic World. Seniors in all the media organisations recognised her work. Regarding education, she earned a BA (Hons.) in Political Science and a master's degree from Delhi University, and she pursued a PG Diploma in English Journalism from the Indian Institution of Mass Communication (IIMC). She also holds a diploma in Women's Empowerment and Development from IGNOU University and a French certification course from Alliance Française de Delhi. If not working, you can find her exploring the hills and engaging in adventurous activities in Rishikesh and Himachal Pradesh. She loves to play badminton, volleyball, and chess, and spend time with her friends and family. She also enjoys spiritual activities.Read More

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