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What role does the Islamic State play in attacks by offshoots and lone wolves?

Jan 02, 2025 01:45 PM IST

The New Orleans truck attack, if confirmed, would be the largest IS-inspired act in years, amid a decline in such plots following a surge a decade ago.

Police reported recovering a “stark black banner of the Islamic State extremist group” from the truck driven by a Texas man, Shamsud-Din Jabbar, who rammed into New Year's partygoers in New Orleans' French Quarter on Wednesday, killing 15 people.

FBI agents walk near the site where people were killed by a man driving a truck in an attack during New Year's celebrations, in New Orleans, Louisiana, U.S., January 1, 2025. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz(REUTERS)
FBI agents walk near the site where people were killed by a man driving a truck in an attack during New Year's celebrations, in New Orleans, Louisiana, U.S., January 1, 2025. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz(REUTERS)

The investigation will likely focus on whether Jabbar received support or was inspired by the Middle East-based group or any of its 19 affiliated organisations worldwide.

Though routed from its self-declared caliphate in Syria and Iraq by a US-led coalition more than five years ago, the Islamic State has primarily concentrated on territorial control in the Middle East rather than orchestrating large-scale al-Qaida-style attacks in the West, Associated Press reported.

Here is an overview that examines the Islamic State, its current position, and the armed groups and lone attackers who have acted under its banner.

What is the Islamic State?

  • The Islamic State, also known as IS or ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria), originated as a splinter group from al Qaida. By 2014, under leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the ISIS controlled vast territories in Iraq and Syria, inflicting atrocities on those of other faiths and Sunni Muslims who opposed its strict interpretation of Islam.
  • Within its former territory, the group has shown no hesitation in targeting Americans and other foreigners, often using brutal tactics such as beheadings. Globally, the Islamic State has had some success, though diminished in recent years, in inspiring individuals drawn to its ideology to commit violent attacks against civilians.
  • A US-led military campaign eliminated the Islamic State’s territorial hold by 2019. During this time, al-Baghdadi detonated an explosive vest, killing himself and two children, as U.S. forces closed in on him.
  • Today, the core Islamic State organisation operates as a fragmented and significantly weakened group. It is reportedly working to rebuild its forces and regain territory in Iraq and Syria, with experts warning of its re-emergence.
  • The Islamic State's flag features a stark black design with a white Arabic script expressing a key Islamic creed. Many Muslims globally view the group’s violent actions as a distortion of their faith.
  • The Islamic State remains influential as a brand, inspiring militant groups and lone individuals to commit attacks, even without direct involvement. Its ideology and initial military success have spurred affiliates in regions such as Africa, Asia, and Europe.
  • IS-affiliated groups have executed devastating attacks, including a March 2024 incident attributed to its Afghanistan affiliate, which killed about 130 people at a theatre in Moscow.
  • If verified, the New Orleans truck attack would mark the largest IS-inspired act on US soil in years. In the past, IS-linked plots surged about a decade ago but have since declined.
  • Previous attacks included the 2014 San Bernardino shooting by a couple who killed 14 people and the 2016 Orlando nightclub massacre, where 59 were killed. The Orlando gunman pledged allegiance to IS and expressed disdain for Western culture during a 911 call.
  • During IS’s peak, thousands of Westerners, including Americans, travelled to Syria to join the so-called caliphate. US defence operations eliminated key IS leaders, while the FBI disrupted numerous plots.
  • Over the past year, the FBI has cautioned about heightened international terrorism risks following Hamas’ October 2023 attacks in Israel and subsequent Israeli actions in Gaza. According to the SITE intelligence group, IS supporters celebrated the New Orleans attack in online forums. One comment read: “If it’s a brother, he’s a legend. Allahu Akbar,” or “God is great.”

Lone wolf attacks in US

Radicalisation model for lone wolf terrorism: Lone wolf terrorism begins with personal and political grievances that create a connection with extremist groups or sympathizers. An enabler is identified, facilitating the radicalisation process. The individual broadcasts their intent to commit acts of terrorism. A triggering event serves as the catalyst, prompting the terrorist act.

Source and purpose of the radicalisation model: The model detailed in the report “Lone Wolf Terrorism in America: Using Knowledge of Radicalization Pathways to Forge Prevention Strategies” by Mark Hamm and Ramon Spaaij states that law enforcement and intelligence agencies rely on understanding these radicalization pathways to detect and prevent lone wolf attacks.

Changes in lone wolf terrorism post-9/11: While lone wolf terrorism in the US may not be increasing, its methods are evolving significantly. A notable shift involves targeting uniformed police and military personnel.

Statistics on attacks against law enforcement: Before 9/11, 12 law enforcement officers were killed or wounded by lone wolf terrorists over 60 years. In the 13 years following 9/11, this number doubled to 24, highlighting a growing focus on targeting law enforcement by lone wolves.

(With Associated Press inputs)

Read breaking news, latest updates from US, UK, Pakistan and other countries across the world on topics related to politics,crime, and national affairs along with Super Bowl 2025 Live Updates.
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Read breaking news, latest updates from US, UK, Pakistan and other countries across the world on topics related to politics,crime, and national affairs along with Super Bowl 2025 Live Updates.
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