Bihar exit polls project a possible shocker for Nitish Kumar. What it means

Most exit polls give the opposition alliance led by the RJD an edge over the ruling alliance in Bihar.

Exit polls released after the conclusion of three-phased Bihar assembly elections project a distinct advantage for the Grand Alliance, suggesting the distinct possibility that the National Democratic Alliance or the NDA’s grasp on power in the politically important state is slipping.

RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav shows victory sign and his mother and former chief minister of Bihar, Rabri Devi, is seen by his side. (ANI Photo)

Here are some of the key takeaways gleaned from the projections forecast in Bihar exit polls.

Mahagathbandhan or the Grand Alliance may make a clean sweep- The GA’s dominance could be near complete if one goes by the maximum number of seats the opposition alliance is projected to win according to some exit polls. While News 18-Today Chanakya exit poll predicts a maximum of 191 seats for the GA, the India Today- Axis polls give the alliance a maximum of 161 seats in the 243-member assembly. Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat exit poll projects a maximum of 138 seats for the GA.

The Grand Alliance, at the lowest range of its projected winning margin, either has a slender lead over the NDA or is locked in a neck-and-neck fight with the rival alliance for power in the state. For example, according to the Times Now-CVoter exit poll, the RJD-led Grand Alliance may win 120 seats against NDA’s 116 seats. Similarly, as per TV-9 Bharatvarsh exit poll, the GA is likely to return with at least 115 seats compared to the maximum of 120 seats the NDA is projected to win. In another example, according to India Today-Axis My India exit poll, the GA is likely to win at least 139 seats compared to the maximum of 91 seats projected for the NDA. Similarly Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat exit poll projects a minimum of 118 seats for the GA compared to a maximum of 117 seats for the NDA.

Chirag Paswan’s LJP’s gamble may not have paid. Most exit polls indicate that the Lok Janshakti Party may struggle to breach the two digit mark despite the gambit by Chirag Paswan to go alone in the polls to widen his party’s footprint within the state and increase its political heft by cornering a larger share of seats in the elections. India Today-Axis My India exit poll and Republic TV -Jan Ki Baat exit poll have predicted victory on 5-8 seats for the LJP. Hindi Daily Dainik Bhaskar’s exit poll, however, predicts 12-23 seats for the LJP.

The LJP had hoped to play the kingmaker but this would be possible only if the NDA, or the GA for that matter, narrowly missed the half-way mark requiring assistance from parties outside the alliance. The LJP would hope that the best scenario projection of around two dozen seats for the party materializes for it to be in a position to play a decisive hand. But there is ample evidence, according to some polls such as the India Today- Axis, that Chirag Paswan’s party may have cost the NDA the election in nearly two dozen seats.

Hindi Daily Dainik Bhaskar’s exit poll is perhaps the only one to predict advantage for the NDA in the electoral battle against the Grand Alliance in Bihar. Bhaskar exit poll projects 120-127 seats for NDA and 71-81 seats for the GA. It also projects 12-23 seats for the LJP and up to 27 seats for other parties in the fray.