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Bitcoin price today: Why is BTC falling toward $83,000 as US Treasury yields rise?
Bitcoin price falls toward $83,000 as US Treasury yields hit 2007 highs. Here’s why rising yields, Fed rates and PCE inflation are pressuring BTC.
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Bitcoin was trading near $83,050 late on September 29, according to TradingView’s Binance BTC/USDT chart. BTC has fallen from a September 21 high of around $87,400. The daily price moved below $84,000, but Bitcoin was still above its 20-day simple moving average of $80,944.
This puts Bitcoin between the recent high near $87,400 and a nearby support zone around 82,600-83,000. The fall happened as US Treasury yields moved higher and oil prices remained volatile. These factors provide a broader market backdrop, but the price chart alone cannot show whether the decline was caused by profit-taking, changing interest-rate expectations or other selling.
Bitcoin's 4-hour chart puts $82,665 in focus
Bitcoin's latest 4-hour candle fell from an opening price of about $84,358 to roughly $83,032. The candle's low was around $82,910, bringing BTC close to the lower Bollinger Band at $82,665.The middle Bollinger Band was at $83,932, while the upper band was near $85,198.
If Bitcoin moves back above the middle band, $84,000 could come back into focus. A stronger recovery could then take BTC toward the 85,000-85,200 area. The previous high near $87,400 remains a bigger hurdle, as recent Bitcoin rebounds have failed below that level.
Bitcoin's short-term trend has lost strength
The 4-hour ADX, or Average Directional Index, was 12.39. ADX measures the strength of a trend, not its direction. The low reading suggests that the earlier upward trend has lost strength on the 4-hour chart.
Also read: Why are Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures wavering today? AI concerns, oil prices in focus
Bitcoin has also moved back and forth around the middle Bollinger Band since falling from its September 21 high. The latest move toward the lower band shows that short-term selling pressure has pushed BTC toward the lower part of its recent range.
Bitcoin is still above important daily moving averages
Despite the recent decline, Bitcoin remained above several major daily moving averages. BTC was above the 20-day average at $80,944. It was also above the 50-day average at $76,883 and the 100-day average at $70,135. The 200-day average was around $71,235. This means the latest pullback has not yet pushed Bitcoin below these longer-term measures.
Buying pressure has weakened
Bitcoin's daily Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF, was slightly positive at 0.04. CMF is used to look at buying and selling pressure. The reading is much closer to zero than it was earlier in September during Bitcoin's rally. This points to weaker buying pressure, although the indicator is still slightly positive.
CoinGlass' one-week Bitcoin liquidation heatmap showed a major nearby liquidation band around 82,300-82,600. Bitcoin moved close to this area during its September 28 decline and again on September 29. If BTC breaks below this area and stays there, attention could shift toward around $81,000. The 20-day moving average near $80,944 would then become another important level to watch.
There is also a large liquidation zone above Bitcoin
The CoinGlass heatmap showed another strong liquidation band around 85,400-85,700. Additional concentrations were visible near $87,300 and $88,000. These areas represent estimated liquidation exposure, not confirmed future Bitcoin price targets, as noted by CryptoNews.
A move above roughly $85,500 could bring the higher liquidation concentrations into focus. If Bitcoin is rejected around that area, BTC could remain below the liquidity built during its earlier rally.
Bitcoin is currently stuck in an important range
The 82,000-85,500 range has become important for Bitcoin in the near term. Since the sharp fall from the September 21 high, Bitcoin has repeatedly moved between the lower support area and rebounds toward the mid-$84,000s.
The latest decline has brought BTC back toward the lower end of this range. This makes the $82,600 area important for determining whether Bitcoin can attempt another rebound.
Also read: Oil supply from the Middle East rises sharply: What happens to crude prices next?
Bitcoin ETF inflows remain a positive demand signal
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.39 billion in net inflows during the September 21-25 trading week. The ETFs recorded positive flows on all five trading days during that week.
Monday alone accounted for about $999 million of the total. The figures come from Farside Investors data, as reported by crypto.news. These inflows show continued demand through US spot Bitcoin funds during that period.
ETF inflows did not stop the Bitcoin pullback
The ETF inflows happened during a week when Bitcoin first reached its eight-month high and then gave back part of its gains. The ETF data shows demand through US funds, but it does not show who sold Bitcoin during the later decline.
It also does not prove that ETF investors were buying the dip on September 29. Therefore, the strong weekly ETF inflows and the current Bitcoin decline can both be seen in the market without assuming that one directly caused or prevented the other.
Long-term holder data shows a possible reset
Crypto market commentator Gerla said in a September 29 post that an adjusted measure of long-term holders' market value to realized value had returned to about 1.35, as noted by CryptoNews. The measure had briefly moved below the level where this group was in profit. Gerla described the move as a "healthy reset." However, that interpretation depends on whether Bitcoin can hold its current support area.
Why is Bitcoin falling as Treasury yields rise?
The Bitcoin pullback has happened alongside higher US Treasury yields and volatile oil prices. Higher Treasury yields can provide an important macro backdrop for risk assets such as Bitcoin.
However, the information given does not establish that rising Treasury yields alone caused Bitcoin's decline. Profit-taking, changing expectations for interest rates and other selling could also have contributed to the move.
What Bitcoin traders are watching now
The first important level is $82,600. If Bitcoin holds above this level, BTC could try to move back toward the $83,932 middle Bollinger Band. A stronger rebound could then bring the $85,500 liquidation area into focus. If Bitcoin breaks below the $82,600 support area and remains there, the next area to watch is around 80,900-81,000. At the same time, US Bitcoin ETF flows and Treasury yields will remain important pieces of the broader market picture.
