E-Paper
IMD predicts below normal monsoon in Chandigarh this year
IMD Chandigarh director Manmohan Singh said, “As per the probability models, rain is likely to be below normal for the entire region, including Chandigarh. There is no singular reason but multiple global factors that have caused this.” The onset of monsoon is also likely to be delayed in the region this year as per early models.
Even as recent days have recorded above average rainfall, the trend is not likely to continue during the forthcoming monsoon as below average rain is expected in the city, as per a long-range forecast (LRF) issued by the India meteorological department (IMD). The onset of monsoon is also likely to be delayed in the region this year as per early models.
The LRF is issued using a multi-model ensemble forecasting system using simulations from the coupled global climate models sourced from various global climate prediction and research centres. For all of northwest India probability for below normal monsoon (82% or below normal) is highest at 50% followed by normal monsoon at 30% probability and above average monsoon at 20% probability.
Speaking about this, IMD Chandigarh director Manmohan Singh said, “As per the probability models, rain is likely to be below normal for the entire region, including Chandigarh. There is no singular reason but multiple global factors that have caused this.”
As per IMD officials, the recent spell of rains in May is also one factor and for the country to receive a good amount of rain during the monsoons, temperature should remain high over the western and northwestern parts of the country around Rajasthan this time of the year, but it hasn’t happened this time.
Monsoon likely to be delayed
The IMD Chandigarh director said the onset of monsoon is also likely to be affected. June is considered as the first of the four monsoon months by the IMD, but monsoon is yet to arrive in the country. In Chandigarh, the onset of monsoon takes place around June 26, but it’s likely to be delayed now although it’s too early to say by how many days, he added.
As per the IMD, pre-monsoon showers will also be delayed. Pre-monsoon showers are the rains recorded in the city up to 72 hours before the official onset of the monsoon is declared. The onset of monsoon is declared when the monsoon system enters the region, and it rains continuously for two days as a whole. The prevailing wind systems in the region are also important for declaring the onset of the monsoon.
June may record below average rain
The IMD has also released probability forecast models for June. The city is likely to receive below normal rain in June and both maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to stay above normal due to this.
Showers likely from today
Meanwhile, the uncharacteristic spell of rains in May is set to continue on Monday as a fresh western disturbance will affect the city from Monday. Chances of light rain are likely to continue till Wednesday. While Thursday is likely to remain cloudy, clear weather can be expected from Friday onwards. The temperature is likely to stay on the lower side during this, but it may start increasing from the next weekend.
The maximum temperature went up from 32°C on Saturday to 36°C on Sunday, still 4.1 degrees below normal. The minimum temperature fell from 22°C on Saturday to 21.7°C on Sunday, 4 degrees below normal. In the next three days, the maximum temperature will remain between 34°C and 36°C while the minimum temperature will remain between 23°C and 24°C.
