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Fourth wave may arrive if Covid cases continue to rise, cautions PGIMER Chandigarh
Health experts from PGIMER Chandigarh caution next 15 days crucial; say cases may spike as all Covid restrictions have been lifted in the tricity area
Amid the spike in Covid-19 cases in Delhi and Haryana, the Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research (PGIMER) on Saturday said the next 15 days were crucial, as if the daily case count continues to show an upward trend, a fourth wave will not be far behind.
The medical experts also estimated that Chandigarh tricity’s daily infection count will witness a temporary rise for a month, as no Covid-related restrictions were in place.
“So far, Chandigarh tricity has not witnessed a sharp rise in the daily infections, but looking at the trend in neighbouring states, tricity will also witness a temporary rise in the case load. This is because no Covid-related restrictions are in place, allowing people to attend large indoor and outdoor gatherings, without wearing face masks and maintaining social distance,” said Dr PVM Lakshmi, professor of epidemiology, PGIMER.
“If cases keep climbing, it can lead to the fourth wave of the pandemic. People who were not infected during the third wave have higher chances of catching the infection this time,” Dr Lakshmi cautioned.
‘Next wave will be less severe’
The doctor, however, said, “Even if the cases increase and lead to the fourth wave, the infection is expected to be less severe. In January, the Covid cases surged rapidly, as the infection transmission rate was high due to the new Omicron variant. But due to herd immunity, the transmission dipped in February and March, resulting in a low case tally for weeks at stretch.”
During the third wave in January, the tricity had recorded 59,273 cases, highest since the pandemic broke out in March 2020. Though the case tally was all-time high, at 113, the deaths were 86% lower than 790 recorded in May 2021, when the second wave had peaked.
“There is a lurking fear of a new variant, Deltacron, which has characteristics of both Delta and Omicron, as many countries are reporting its cases. But till March end, the dominant variant in Chandigarh tricity was Omicron and no Deltacron case was reported. Majority of people already have immunity against the Omicron variant, due to which infection will be less severe, even if the transmission rate is high.”
Tricity’s active cases climb to 67
The tricity’s active Covid-19 cases continued to climb for the seventh consecutive day on Saturday.
Compared to 31 a week ago, the figure jumped to 67 on Saturday, highest since March 20, as 13 more people tested positive in the tricity.
Chandigarh confirmed seven new cases, Panchkula four and Mohali two. Chandigarh had last reported seven cases only on March 25.
Among the 67 positive patients in the tricity, 28 are recuperating in Chandigarh, 24 in Mohali and 15 in Panchkula.
Record 1,966 kids jabbed in Chandigarh in a day
As many 1,966 children in the 12 to 15 age group were vaccinated against Covid-19 on Saturday, the highest single-day vaccination count for the group since the drive started on March 16.
Notably, the rise in children getting jabbed came after the UT health department organised special vaccination camps in eight government schools on Friday and Saturday. Apart from these camps, the vaccines are also being offered at PGIMER; GMCH-32; GMSH-16; and the Civil Hospitals in Manimajra, Sector 22 and Sector 45.
In view of the encouraging response, UT health secretary Yashpal Garg said the special vaccination camps will continue on Sunday as well, and students of other schools and areas can also get vaccinated at these camps between 9 am and 3 pm.
The schools holding the camps are GMSSS, Sector 38 (West); GSSS, Manimajra Town; GMHS, Vikas Nagar; GMSSS, Timber Market Sector 26; GMHS, Sector 49; GMSSS, Dhanas; GMHS, Maloya RC-II; and GSSS, Sector 45.
Garg added that the UT adviser will review the status of vaccination of children and the increasing number of Covid cases on Monday, and take a call on whether unvaccinated students, aged 12 to 18, should continue to attend physical classes.
As many as 45,000 children are eligible for vaccination in the 12-15 age group in Chandigarh. Of these, 16,159 (36%) have gotten the first dose, while 1,211 (3%) are fully vaccinated.
In the 15-18 age group, the target population is 72,000, of which 66,016 (91%) have been vaccinated once and 38,955 (54%) have received both doses since the drive for this group began on January 3.
