Delhi’s minimum temperature remains high, chill unlikely this week

Lack of western disturbances and snow, in particular, in the higher reaches has meant that despite northwesterly winds blowing, there has been no sharp dip in temperature at night-time

With forecasts predicting Delhi’s minimum temperature to remain around three to four degrees Celsius (°C) above the normal temperature for the next six days—continuing what has been an abnormally warm start to winter this year—it is likely that Delhi will experience a 30-day period with minimum temperature staying above the normal, according to data and predictions of the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

A layer of smog is seen covering the India Gate. Despite fog and smog, temperature is yet to significantly dip. (Sanchit Khanna/HT Photo)

Lack of western disturbances and snow, in particular, in the higher reaches has meant that despite northwesterly winds blowing, there has been no sharp dip in temperature at night-time.

“We see at least one or two active western disturbances during this period from October till early November. This brings possible light rain in the plains and snow in the mountains. Strong western disturbances have been missing completely so far,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president at Skymet meteorology.

Delhi’s minimum temperature was recorded at 19°C on October 16 — a degree below the normal. On October 17, it touched 20.3°C, a degree above the normal and has stayed one to five degrees above the normal since. On October 31, it touched 21.1°C, five notches above what is normally recorded at that time of the season.

On November 1, IMD announced this was Delhi’s warmest October since 1951. For the country, this was its warmest October ever, data available since 1901 showed.

The “normal” mark is based on the long-period average for dates, after assessing data over three decades between 1991 and 2020, officials said.

According to IMD data, although there was a marginal dip in night-time temperature at the start of November, when northwesterly winds were strong, the temperature was still a couple of degrees above the normal. Delhi’s minimum dipped to a season-low of 16.5°C on November 3, which was a degree higher than the normal. However, a change in wind direction—switching back towards southeasterly—meant temperature has once again risen.

Data shows it has remained above 18°C over the past four days, which is around four degrees higher than the normal temperature for this time of the year. On Sunday, Delhi recorded a minimum temperature of 18.4°C, again four notches above the normal.

Experts also said that in addition to snow, a sustained drop in both day and night-time temperature can only occur when northwesterly winds persist for a period of time. “Since November 5, wind direction has oscillated, switching frequently between southeasterly and northwesterly. Southeasterly winds are warmer in comparison to northwesterly winds,” Palawat said.

An IMD official said the wind direction is likely to remain variable, switching between easterly, southeasterly, northerly and northwesterly, till November 16, with the minimum unlikely to dip below 17°C. “The minimum is expected to be between 17°C and 18°C. We are also not expecting an active western disturbance at the moment,” the official said.

IMD data shows that the minimum dropped to 13.5°C on November 6, 2023. The lowest minimum temperature recorded till November 10 in 2022 was 14°C on October 5 and in 2021, it was 13.4°C on November 10. In 2020, Delhi had already touched 10°C on both November 3 and 9, showing a dip in the minimum temperature has been delayed this year.