Role of farm fires in Delhi pollution lesser this year: Report

The report, released on Saturday, is based on continuous ambient air monitoring and Decision Support System (DSS) modelling.

The role of stubble burning in the deteriorating air quality of the Capital this year has been significantly lower than previous years, as per an analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). The report, released on Saturday, is based on continuous ambient air monitoring and Decision Support System (DSS) modelling.

Smoke rises from the burning stubble in a Punjab crop field last month. (REUTERS)

The average contribution of stubble burning to Delhi’s PM 2.5 this November stood at 7%, down from 20% last year, while the peak contribution fell to 22%, as against 38% in 2024. Analysts said that while pollution levels remained fairly high this year too, lesser days with peak levels prevented the abrupt “emergency-like” spikes the Capital has recorded in many previous winters.

Data in the report shows that the number of high farm fire days reduced sharply this year. Delhi recorded 20 days with a farm fire contribution between 0–10% last month, compared to only two such days in November 2024. Days when the stubble burning contribution was in the 11–20% bracket fell from 14 last year to six this year. Meanwhile, the 30% mark has not been crossed this year so far, against four such days in November 2024.

“Stubble burning peaked in the second week of November, which is when Delhi’s pollution also spiked. With stubble burning over, the pollution we are seeing is largely from the city’s usual year-round sources,” said Manoj Kumar, analyst at CREA. Kumar said that Delhi’s pollution would have been worse this winter, had the contribution been similar to last winter.

“We would have seen higher overall pollution and maybe more ‘severe’ days too,” he said.

November ended with a total of 24 ‘very poor’ air days – an air quality index (AQI) between 301 and 400; three ‘severe’ days – when the AQI was over 400 and three ‘poor’ days – an AQI between 201 and 300.

Data from the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), which tracks fires and submits the information to the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM), aligns with the CREA report.

Punjab recorded 5,114 farm fires till November 30 this year, down from 10,909 last year. It was 36,663 in 2023, 49,922 in 2022, 71,304 in 2021 and 83,002 in 2020, as per IARI data. Similarly in Haryana, the figure stands at 662 fires this year, the lowest in the last five years.

It was 1,406 fires last year; 2,303 fires in 2023; 3,661 fires in 2022; 6,987 in 2021 and 4,202 in 2020.

This year, farm fires were also delayed due to floods in Punjab. A delayed harvest and an early Diwali meant the combined contribution of both these sources was also avoided in terms of contribution to Delhi’s air quality.

Experts said that gaps likely exist in records by satellites, with some fires going unrecorded, but the broader reduction is well-established. “While the exact figures may not be fully accurate, as some farmers may be burning fields when the satellite is not capturing data, but overall we know there is a reduction, which is down to both in-situ and ex-situ measures,” said Anumita Roychowdhury, executive director, research and advocacy at CSE.

She added that the lower peak contribution has reflected in Delhi’s AQI peaks, which have been lower than previous years.

While CREA’s snapshot focuses on stubble burning, the report also cautions that the city’s winter pollution remains at unsafe levels and that the marginal relief offered by fewer fires will not translate into sustained improvement unless year-round emissions from transport, industry, waste burning and power generation are addressed.