E-Paper
Will BJP brush aside INDIA challenge, close the door on close contests?
All eyes are on which way the poll wind will blow in Uttar Pradesh now that there is no mahgathbandhan (grand SP-BSP alliance) and the Modi magic continues to be a factor, perhaps still a decisive one, in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
Close electoral contests or one-sided fights with the BJP playing the trump card? All eyes are on which way the poll wind will blow in Uttar Pradesh now that there is no mahgathbandhan (grand SP-BSP alliance) and the Modi magic continues to be a factor, perhaps still a decisive one, in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
Five years ago, bitter political rivals, the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party, put aside 24 years of hostility post the June 2, 1995 guest house incident to form an alliance in 2019. They gave the BJP a close run in more than half-a-dozen seats though the ruling party still went on to win 62 seats and its ally Apna Dal (Sonelal) bagged two seats.
In 2014, the BJP put up a stronger show and Uttar Pradesh reported only two close contests in Rampur and Sambhal. Both seats went to the BJP.
Five years later, the election saw a close contest on 10 Lok Sabha seats. Though the BJP won eight of these seats, its winning margin came down to a few thousand on these seats. The Shravasti and Saharanpur Lok Sabha seats went to the BSP.
In Machhlishahr, the BJP’s Bholanath won by a wafer thin margin of 181 votes.
In Meerut, the BJP’s victory margin came down to 4,729 votes and in Shravasti, it was 5,320 votes.
“The SP and BSP Mahagathbandhan had played a crucial role in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. It gave a tough fight to the BJP on 10 seats. There is no such formidable alliance in this election,” said Dr Prashant Trivedi, associate prof, Giri Institute of Development Studies.
The Opposition alliance won 15 seats, the SP five and the BSP 10 in 2019. One seat went to the Congress.
The BJP has given the slogan ‘Abki baar 400 paar’ (this time 400 plus seats) in this election and to make this possible, Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha, will be key.
This time, the INDIA bloc alliance, mainly the Samajwadi Party and the Congress, will take on the BJP. Out of 80 seats, Congress will be contesting 17 and SP on 62 seats. From its share, the SP has given the Bhadohi seat to the Trinamool Congress
“How successful the INDIA bloc will be in stopping the BJP in Uttar Pradesh remains to be seen. The SP and Congress alliance will no doubt consolidate Muslim votes in their favour. But will the INDIA bloc have the same impact on voters as the Mahagathbandhan of SP and BSP had in 2019 polls?” said a political analyst.
Trivedi said the Mahagathbandhan alliance of the SP and BSP was more broad-based as it comprise OBC and Scheduled Caste voters.
However, it was only confined to Uttar Pradesh whereas the INDIA bloc alliance is at the national level, he said.
TOUGH FIGHTS
2014 Lok Sabha polls
Kannauj: Dimple Yadav of SP defeats BJP’s Subrat Pathak by 19,907 votes (1.8%)
Rampur: Nepal Singh of BJP defeats SP’s Naseer Ahmad Ali Khan by 23,435 votes (2.5%)
Sambhal: Satyapal Singh Saini of BJP defeats SP’s Shafiq -Ur-Rahman Barq by 5174 votes (0.5%)
2019
Budaun: Sanghmitra Maurya of BJP win by 18,454 votes (1.7%)
Ballia: Virendra Singh of BJP wins by 15,519 votes (1.6%)
Basti: Harish Dwivedi of BJP wins by 30,354 votes (2.9%)
Chandauli: Mahendra Nath Pandey of BJP wins by 13,959 votes (1.3%)
Firozabad: Chandra Sen Jadaun of BJP wins by 28,781 votes (2.7%)
Machhlishahr: Bholanath of BJP wins by 181 votes (0.01%)
Meerut: Rajendra Agarwal of BJP wins by 4,729 votes (0.4%)
Saharanpur: Haji Fazlur Rehman of BSP wins by 22,417 votes (1.8%)
Shravasti: Ram Shiromani of BSP wins by 5,320 votes (0.5%)
Sultanpur: Maneka Gandhi of BJP wins by 14,526 votes (1.5%)
WHAT NUMBERS REVEAL
In 2014 Lok Sabha election, BJP contested 78 seats and won 71. Its alliance partner Apna Dal won two seats. The SP won five, Congress two and BSP none.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha poll, BJP contested 78 seats and won 62. Its alliance partner Apna Dal won two seats.
In the Mahagathbandhan alliance, the SP contested 37 seats and won five. The BSP contested 38 seats and won 10 seats. One seat went to the Congress.
