April to be warmer than usual for Mumbai: IMD

Mumbai: The extended range forecast for the month of April by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) shows that Mumbai, as with the rest of the Konkan region, is very likely to experience above-normal temperatures during the next four weeks.

Mumbai has a 75% to 85% chance of seeing above normal readings of daytime maximum temperature, which shows the IMD’s forecast. The city also has a between 35 to 45% chance of seeing above normal minimum nighttime readings. Mumbai and surrounding areas may also receive some pre-monsoon showers in April.

“We cannot make a more specific prediction at this rate. For that, one should follow the IMD’s daily and weekly forecasts. But yes, it is very certain that April will be a warm month for the Konkan strip, especially after the heatwave conditions which we have seen in March,” said an official with the IMD’s regional forecasting centre in Mumbai. They also pointed out that La Niña conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific, and are likely to continue through April and the remaining summer season.

“Because of the prevailing influence of La Niña which led to a cooler-than-normal and prolonged winter, we knew that there would be a brief spell of intense heatwave conditions across India prior to the upcoming southwest monsoon. But the influence of La Niña is also expected to wane soon, making way for the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) soon after the monsoon begins. It is still too early to make any concrete predictions for the monsoon, but signs point to a normal rainfall year,” said the officials cited above.

La Niña refers to the large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, namely winds, pressure, and rainfall. It usually has the opposite impact on weather and climate as El Niño, which is the warm phase of the so-called El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

ENSO has a major influence on weather and climate patterns such as heavy rains, floods, and drought. In India for example, El Nino is associated with drought or weak monsoon while La Nina is associated with strong monsoon and above-average rains, and colder winters.

On Thursday, Mumbai’s maximum temperature at the IMD’s Santacruz station was recorded at 32.6 degrees Celsius, one degree below normal, while the minimum temperature was recorded at a normal 22.6 degrees Celsius. As per the IMD’s seven-day forecast for Mumbai, the daytime temperature could rise to 37 degrees Celsius by April 2, settling to about 34 degrees Celsius by April 6. The minimum temperature in the city will range between 22 to 25 degrees Celsius.