How BJP managed to weaken MVA and downsize Shinde

Despite the vertical split in the Shiv Sena last year, the BJP was not able to decimate the Uddhav Thackeray-led faction. In fact, the MVA alliance seemed to pose a strong opposition to their leadership, making the party unsure about winning 45 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra in the 2024 general elections. A weakened MVA will bolster BJP’s prospects in parts of Maharashtra that have been out of its reach.

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has managed to kill two birds with one stone by orchestrating the split in the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) – to weaken the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) and downsize its ruling partner, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena. On the other hand, while the party was apprehensive about losing its existing seats, BJP leaders feel they will now be able to score the targeted number of Lok Sabha seats and retain control over the state government.

Devendra Fadnavis, deputy chief minister, appears pensive ahead of NCP Leader Ajit Pawar’s oath-taking ceremony as the Deputy Chief Minister in the BJP- Shivsena government at Raj Bhawan in Mumbai on Sunday. (Anshuman Poyrekar/ HT PHOTO)

Despite the vertical split in the Shiv Sena last year, the BJP was not able to decimate the Uddhav Thackeray-led faction. In fact, the MVA alliance seemed to pose a strong opposition to their leadership, making the party unsure about winning 45 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra in the 2024 general elections. A weakened MVA will bolster BJP’s prospects in parts of Maharashtra that have been out of its reach.

In an interview to Hindustan Times on Thursday, deputy chief minister and BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis admitted that their number of MPs in Maharashtra may decrease, as the Uddhav Thackeray faction still enjoyed a strength in the state, and added they will win around 35 seats in 2024.

Commenting on BJP’s second strategy, a BJP leader requesting anonymity said, “We have managed to form a parallel alternative to the Shinde faction by inducting some of Maharashtra’s stalwarts into the cabinet. Shinde and his party had not been able to create the impact that was expected – this was disclosed to both the CM and deputy CM last month by the BJP’s central leadership last month.” He added keeping Shinde “in check” was foremost on the party’s agenda in the backdrop of the controversial advertisement two weeks ago that created a rift between the two parties.

Elaborating on the game of numbers, the leader said BJP could not make inroads into 11 Lok Sabha constituencies given NCP’s stronghold over them. “These NCP bastions have a completely different voter-base. Our only option was to create a dent in the party by poaching their stalwart leaders. This will lead us into districts in western Maharashtra, including Pune, Satara and others,” he said, adding that MVA “was also a concern” as it had managed to “emerge stronger than the ruling parties after the fall of their government”.

State BJP chief Chandrashekhar Bawankule said, “The NCP MLAs have joined the government keeping full faith in the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This will help Maharashtra and the country to take another leap. We are happy that the two deputy chief ministers will work in the interest of the state.”

Another BJP leader however expressed apprehension given the dismay among the voters as the twin splits were achieved by the use of power. “The voters may be disgruntled by these developments, although they may not completely go against the Modi government for want of powerful opposition. They were unhappy in 2009 as well and did not turn out to vote. For want of a strong alternative from BJP, we could not defeat the Manmohan Singh government that was facing anti-incumbency. We have been told by our central leaders that the weakening opposition proves more beneficial than the risk of damage to the image due to the breaking of parties,” he said.