How did some wards wave down Covid-19 in Mumbai? Civic body to study pattern

Since the outbreak of the pandemic, a few civic wards in the city have recorded fewer Covid-19 cases compared to others, keeping the numbers low even during the second wave

Since the outbreak of the pandemic, a few civic wards in the city have recorded fewer Covid-19 cases compared to others, keeping the numbers low even during the second wave. Anticipating a third wave post September, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) has decided to conduct an epidemiological study of these wards.

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Since the start of the pandemic in March 2020, wards A (Fort), B (Dongri) and C (Kalbadevi) have been recording the lowest growth rate. On April 7, these three wards had fewer than seven cases each. On the same day, G-South (Elphinstone) ward followed by D (Nana Chowk), E (Byculla) and K-West (Andheri West) ward recorded 78, 59, 46 and 43 Covid-19 patients, respectively.

The ward-wise difference is visible in the data shared by the BMC. For instance, till May 30, B ward recorded a total of 3,796 cases, the lowest in the city. It is followed by C and A wards, with 6,624 and 15,463 cases, respectively. On the other hand, K-W (Andheri West) has recorded 51,432 cases, the highest in the city. Similarly, R-Central (Borivali) and K-East (Andheri East) have registered 48,293 and 43,861 cases so far.

The BMC plans to study the trend. Several educational institutions like Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay (IIT-B) and the University of Mumbai have tied up with the civic body for the study. “All the wards have implemented the same Covid-19 containment procedures and uniform policies. Despite this, some wards have recorded 10 times more cases. So, it is essential to study and understand the reasons behind it, which may help if we face a possible third wave in the near future,” said Suresh Kakani, additional commissioner, BMC. At present, the average seven-day growth rate of Mumbai stands at 0.15%. R-N ward that covers Kandivli has the highest growth rate (0.28%).

A senior officer explained that the number of cases varied drastically between south Mumbai and suburban wards due to the variation in population. Citing an example, the officer said, for instance, B ward has a population of 1.5 lakh, while R-C has 6 lakh. “The infection rate is directly proportional to the size of the population. Wards with more people will have more infected patients, but this needs to be studied. As the cases have dipped, we can spend time on research to understand the epidemiological characteristics of the virus spread,” said the officer. Last year, the BMC conducted a sero-prevalence study in Mumbai in association with Niti Aayog and Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR). As per officials, the study will include topics such as ward-wise tests, ratio of contact tracing per patients, isolation of high-risk contacts, among others. “This is the first time we are conducting such a study,” said Kakani.

Dr Rahul Pandit, member of the state Covid-19 task force said, “The infection rate varies from place to place. There is a need for a study to understand the reason behind it.”