Sena (UBT)’s Khaire could benefit from Maratha and Muslim anger

The Sena (UBT)’s Chandrakant Khaire is pitted against sitting AIMIM MP Imtiyaz Jaleel and minister Sandeepan Bhumare of the CM Shinde-led Shiv Sena

Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar: The communally sensitive Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar (erstwhile Aurangabad) is witnessing a three-corner fight in the Lok Sabha election. The division of Muslim votes, the lack of coordination between the ruling partners and unrest among Maratha voters has given an edge to the Shiv Sena (UBT) candidate in a close contest, but it remains to be seen if the edge translates into victory.

The division of Muslim votes, the lack of coordination between the ruling partners and unrest among Maratha voters has given an edge to the Shiv Sena (UBT) candidate in a close contest.

The Sena (UBT)’s Chandrakant Khaire is pitted against sitting AIMIM MP Imtiyaz Jaleel and minister Sandeepan Bhumare of the CM Shinde-led Shiv Sena. Jaleel defeated Khaire by 4,492 votes in 2019 and won the polls, mainly because of the split in the Maratha votes and the consolidation of Muslim and Dalit votes. Harshavardhan Jadhav, former MLA and Maratha leader had polled 2.84 lakh votes, which is believed to have resulted in Khaire’s defeat. The Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi led by Prakash Ambedkar had an alliance with the AIMIM, and this helped Jaleel in consolidating Dalit and Muslim votes.

Jaleel this time is banking mostly on Muslim votes. Khaire, who has served four consecutive terms from 1999 to 2014, belongs to the OBC community, while Bhumare is a Maratha. Among the constituency’s 20.59 lakh registered voters, there are over 6.1 lakh OBC voters, 6.5 lakh Maratha voters, about 4 lakh Muslims and over 2.1 lakh Dalit voters.

Rather than issues related to water scarcity and infrastructural development, Aurangabad constituency is witnessing a debate on liquor, Maratha reservation and the splits engineered in the NCP and Shiv Sena. Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray, in his rally in the city on Friday, asked the electorate whether it would prefer liquor in its taps instead of water. Liquor bottles made an appearance on the dais at a party rally, and Sena (UBT) candidate Chandrakant Khaire announced that he would ensure a complete ban on country liquor once he was elected.

The liquor issue was highlighted by the Thackeray camp to expose Shinde camp candidate Bhumare, who has nine liquor permits in the district. “This has been highlighted by our opponents and is a talking point among voters,” said a leader from Shinde-led Shiv Sena. “Also, Bhumare’s assembly constituency, Paithan, falls in Jalna district and thus he is termed an ‘outsider’. His candidature was announced very late, giving him comparatively little time to campaign. All these factors are working against him.”

The leader claimed that despite all this, Bhumare would get the Maratha votes, as he was the only Maratha fielded by prominent parties in the constituency. However, political observers say this is illogical, as the community is particularly upset with the ruling alliance for eventually dismissing Manoj Jarange-Patil, the leader of the over-eight-months-long Maratha reservation stir.

A Shiv Sena (UBT) leader said that Jarange-Patil had been speaking openly against the ruling parties, and this could lead to Maratha votes deviating to Khaire to some extent. “Muslim religious gurus have also appealed to their community to not waste their votes on a Muslim candidate (Jaleel), as this could benefit the ruling alliance candidate,” he said. “If the voters heed this and don’t vote for Jaleel, the Muslim votes could go to Khaire. Dalit votes too this time are in favour of the opposition alliance. Although Khaire is not very popular or known for performance, all this will benefit him.”

The Shinde faction leader quoted above admitted that there was a lack of coordination between the three ruling allies—the Shinde Sena, the BJP and the NCP (Ajit Pawar). “The Shinde Sena and BJP have five of six sitting MPs, and this should play in favour of Bhumare,” he said. “Our endeavour will be to have better coordination among the partners at least for the last two days.” The leader added that the tussle between the two Shiv Sena-UBT leaders, Khaire and Ambadas Danve, could lead to Khaire paying a price in the election.

The candidates all expressed confidence in their electoral prospects. “I am banking on my performance in the last five years paying dividends,” said Jaleel. “I believe that not only Muslims but all voters, especially young voters, will vote for me.” Bhumare said that both his opponents were “busy pleasing Muslim voters”. “There is a fight between Khaire and Jaleel for the No 2 position. I am confident of my victory,” he said. Riposted Khaire, “People know who can work for their district better. Voters don’t want outsiders to bring liquor culture into our district.”

Maratha reservation activist and political observer Balasaheb Sarate-Patil said that among the three top contestants, Jaleel was the best in terms of merit. “But Marathwada voters do not approve of ‘Razakars’ (pre-independence stormtroopers active in the annexation of Hyderabad state ),” he said, in a reference to the AIMIM’s Hyderabad roots. “Even Muslims and Dalits would prefer the Sena (UBT)’s Khaire.” Sarate-Patil said that although Bhumare was a Maratha, the community’s anger with the ruling alliance could go against him.

Observers from the district believe that in the fight between the two Senas, the margin of victory will be narrow. Political observers also complain about real issues being ignored. “This city has not seen any industrial or infrastructural development for years,” said Sudhir Gavhane, former vice-chancellor of Mahatma Gandhi Memorial University. “None of the parties have found a solution to water scarcity or taken steps on agrarian issues. The Lok Sabha election too is being fought on religious, caste and political issues. It is unfortunate.”