Shinde’s takeover of Shiv Sena almost complete; Uddhav strives to survive

In June last year when Shinde rebelled against then Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray, his rebellion was not similar to earlier high-profile Shiv Sena rebels such as Chhagan Bhujbal, Raj Thackeray and Narayan Rane.

Mumbai: For chief minister Eknath Shinde, the takeover of Shiv Sena is almost complete with the Election Commission of India (ECI) recognising his faction as the real Shiv Sena. He will now aim to wipe out or minimise the existence of the Uddhav Thackeray-led faction on the ground.

Thane, India - February 17, 2023: CM Eknath Shinde's son MP Shrikant Shinde with Balasahebanchi Shiv Sena (BSS) party workers celebrates and expresses his happiness after the ECI verdict in favour of Eknath Shinde over "Shiv Sena" name and "Bow and Arrow" symbol, at party office, Anand Ashram, in Thane, India, on Friday, February 17, 2023. (Praful Gangurde/HT Photo) (HT PHOTO)

In June last year when Shinde rebelled against then Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray, his rebellion was not similar to earlier high-profile Shiv Sena rebels such as Chhagan Bhujbal, Raj Thackeray and Narayan Rane. The plan was not only to pull down Thackeray led government and form another one with BJP. It was the first step of the plan. The next step was to take over the Shiv Sena and delink it from Uddhav Thackeray. With the ECI ruling in his favour, Shinde and his backers have almost achieved that. Next will be to wipe out or minimise the existence of the Thackeray faction.

“When we rebelled against Thackeray’s leadership, we announced that ours was the real Shiv Sena. Unlike the previous rebels, we did not just want a share in the power. We wanted complete hold of the party, making Uddhav Thackeray’s leadership irrelevant,” said a key leader of the Shinde camp.

In the Supreme Court as well as in the ECI, the Shinde faction has been insisting that it is not a split but that the majority of elected representatives are coming together to change the leadership which was deviating from the party’s ideology.

“We had 40 out of 56 MLAs and 13 out of 19 MPs which strengthened our claim. We are hoping that our stand will be upheld by the apex court,” added the leader.

Meanwhile, Thackeray’s political battle for survival has just become brutal. Having lost the party, he will have to start from scratch – maybe even finding a new name and a new election symbol for the party which won’t even be a recognised political outfit and probably face civic polls amidst this.

On the other hand, Shinde-faction will now focus on local units and more importantly the civic polls.

“Until recently, we were not sure how much of the Sena cadre on the ground would be with us. With the party name and symbol with us, we have legitimacy. It will be a huge factor,” said a senior MLA from the Shinde camp. Mumbai and other cities in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region will be the primary focus for the same. The entire MMR and Konkan have been traditionally Shiv Sena’s backbone. The Shinde camp would aim to minimise support to Thackeray in these two regions.

Civic polls would be a key factor.

“The elections to Mumbai and other municipal corporations, as well as civic bodies governing smaller cities, will be important for the survival of Thackeray led faction. A significant number of party cadres will now shift to us. In civic polls, contesting on the Sena symbol will be an advantage for them,” the MLA added.

While the mood is upbeat in Shinde camp, the challenges are unending for Uddhav and his aides.

To begin with, he will have to register his party with the ECI and find a symbol for it.

“Our first option is to approach the Supreme Court and seek a stay on the ECI order. After that, we will have to register a new political party. In our meeting on Saturday, we discussed whether to seek the temporary name given to us, Shiv Sena (UBT) and the election symbol flaming torch. Further, what would be our options for both if the ECI rejects the same,” said a senior leader from the Thackeray faction.

Next will be to ensure that the remaining 16 MLAs and six MPs do not have to follow the Shinde faction’s diktat on the floor of the assembly and Lok Sabha respectively. They would face disqualification if they are liable to follow the whip of the official Shiv Sena party. “We are seeking legal opinion on the same,” added the leader.

An equally important task before Thackeray will be to ensure that his elected representatives and party cadre stays with his faction. “There are many in the party who were undecided since it was not clear who would get the Sena name and symbol. Now with the possibility of us retaining the same is almost over, a chunk of party workers especially those who want to contest civic polls could find their way to the Shinde faction. How to stop them would be a major concern for us,” said a Sena legislator from Mumbai.

Political analyst Abhay Deshpande says things have just become more difficult for Thackeray.

“Shiv Sena never had such a revolt. Shinde has managed to take over the party. Keeping the flock together will now be a major challenge for Uddhav Thackeray,” he opined.

“Because of the ECI decision, Shinde’s rebellion has got legitimacy. Agreed there is sympathy for Thackeray now but it may not last long. Winning Mumbai civic polls will be crucial for Thackeray now. If he fails in doing that, there will be a major question mark over his political future,” he added.

Both factions will also be looking forward to the Supreme Court’s decision which would be a very significant factor in their political battle.