Covid-19 cases at 35-day low, not only because it’s Sunday

The number of new cases reported each day dipped below 2,000 only twice in the last 35 days, both were Sundays when fewer tests are conducted.

With 1,947 cases, Delhi reported the fewest fresh coronavirus disease (Covid-19) cases in a single day since August-end, according to the Delhi government’s bulletin The number of new cases reported each day dipped below 2,000 only twice in the last 35 days, both were Sundays when fewer tests are conducted.

Passengers wait to get tested for Covid-19 at Nizamuddin railway station. (Raj K Raj/HT photo)

Only 35,593 people were tested for the infection this Sunday, in comparison to over 53,000 tests performed each day during the week. The number of new cases started declining just over two weeks ago, after hitting a peak of over 4,400 cases in a day. Including the new cases reported, the total number of cases of the viral infection in the city is inching closer to 300,000.

Delhi also reported 32 deaths on Monday, taking the of Covid-19 toll to 5,542. The cumulative case fatality ratio (CFR) – fraction of people who died among the total number of cases in the city – continued its steady decline from 2.5% at the beginning of September to 1.8% as on Sunday, inching closer to the national average of 1.56%.

However, the increase in the number of deaths being reported each day since mid-September, saw the seven-day average CFR increasing from 0.6% on September 15 to 1.39% as on Sunday. During this period, on average 36.7 deaths due to the infection were reported each day. During the previous surge in cases in June-July, the highest number of deaths reported in a single day had gone up to 101, according to data from the CM office.

“The number of deaths has reduced over time; the recovery has gone up. This could be because we are using several experimental therapies now, we are closer to achieving herd immunity leaving less people susceptible to the infection, or the virus might have mutated to cause less severe disease. The doctors have also learnt the benefits of non-invasive ventilation and the treatment protocols have been standardised,” said Dr Neeraj Gupta, professor of pulmonary medicine at Safdarjung hospital.

“It will be like H1N1 – initially there was a lot of scare and then slowly people started realising that it was not very fatal. And, now it is endemic, meaning we keep seeing some cases every year. That is likely how Covid-19 would behave as well,” he said.

The number of hospitalisations has also reduced over the last ten days from just over 7,000 to 5,802 as on Monday. With this, over 63% of the beds earmarked for coronavirus disease are vacant.

“Delhi has seen a decline in the number of cases and hospitalisations for now, however, the infection is likely to continue in the same rise and fall pattern till the time we get a vaccine or most of the people have had the infection,” said Dr Rommel Tickoo, associate director, internal medicine, Max hospital Saket.