The quest for a third front

Regional parties are energised. But the battle of 2024 can’t be fought without the Congress. It isn’t strong enough to take on the BJP on its own, but has enough power to drag down the rest of the Opposition. And that is why while the focus on the third front can be useful in raising issues of federalism and providing a counter-narrative, it won’t change the electoral landscape.

There is renewed buzz around that perennial variable in Indian politics — a third front, or a coalition of regional and smaller forces. Mamata Banerjee and MK Stalin’s recent electoral success have increased the morale of those opposed to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). What was common to both victories was the presence of political strategist-turned-politician, Prashant Kishor, as a consultant. The fact that he helped the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi, Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, and YSR Congress Party in Andhra Pradesh win elections in the last two years has lent him credibility. Mr Kishor’s meetings with Nationalist Congress Party chief Sharad Pawar, first in Mumbai and then in Delhi, triggered speculation about a broad coalition of anti-BJP regional forces.

Regional parties are exasperated with the indecision in the Congress. But the fact is that the Congress got the votes of over 110 million Indian citizens in 2019. (HTPhoto)

But as Mr Kishor himself said after the meeting with Mr Pawar, he did not believe a third or fourth front could take on Narendra Modi. At a separate meeting on Tuesday with other leaders opposed to the BJP, Mr Pawar reportedly indicated that there could no third front without the Congress. This is a pragmatic assessment about the limits of even strong regional parties. In some geographies where the BJP is their primary adversary, for instance Maharashtra or West Bengal, they may be able reduce the BJP’s numbers. In other regions, where the BJP is weak, for instance Tamil Nadu or Andhra Pradesh, even a stellar performance may not affect the BJP’s overall prospects if the 2019 electoral map is an indication.

And that is why the key to any coordinated effort to challenge the BJP is the Congress. Regional parties are exasperated with the indecision in the Congress. But the fact is that the Congress got the votes of over 110 million Indian citizens in 2019; it is the primary challenger to the BJP in states such as Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Haryana and Karnataka (the BJP’s success across these states was critical in 2019); and without the Congress’s consent, presenting a common credible leadership alternative to Narendra Modi isn’t possible. The Congress isn’t strong enough to take on the BJP on its own, but has enough power to drag down the rest of the Opposition. And that is why while the focus on the third front can be useful in raising issues of federalism and providing a counter-narrative, it won’t change the electoral landscape.