What the Maharashtra crisis tells us

The turmoil holds lessons for the Shiv Sena, CM Thackeray and the future of Indian politics

Two weeks is a long time in Indian politics. Two weeks ago, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) – which came together dramatically in 2019 to pip the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at the post in Maharashtra — was seen as one of the most formidable challengers to the ruling dispensation’s hegemony. Two stinging defeats — in the Rajya Sabha elections and the member of legislative council (MLC) polls – later, the coalition appears to be unravelling after a senior minister of the Shiv Sena corralled loyal lawmakers and set off for Gujarat. Hectic parleys are on – to be sure, the MVA government may still survive – but the episode underlines three crucial lessons about electoral politics.

The Surat Police outside a hotel where Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde and a group of party lawmakers were camping. (PTI)

One, the isolation and perceived aloofness of chief minister Uddhav Thackeray, a function of his ill-health last year, combined with the pressures of running an ideologically diverse coalition, is starting to take a toll. The rebellion of a long-time loyalist, Eknath Shinde, points to disenchantment, perhaps caused by the growing prominence of other leaders. At another level, the Sena, a hardline Hindutva party, is increasingly stretched between its ideological past and a more moderate modern face. The crisis exposes the political costs of such a transition, namely the alienation of old-timers that needs to be managed with dynamic and alert leadership. That Mr Thackeray seems to have lost full control of a party known for its regimented structure and loyalty to the founder, Balasaheb Thackeray, points to deeper problems for the Sena. Two, the crisis in Maharashtra, and similar episodes in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, among others, indicate deeper structural shifts. All political parties have found some way to circumvent the anti-defection law, meant to stop lawmakers from willy-nilly switching parties. Transactional politics have eroded the relationship between a legislator and the party, which has to rely on open voting, whips and inducements to ensure loyalty. If there’s anything that these two weeks have shown, it is that elements that form the foundation of party politics need an appraisal.

And while the BJP doesn’t seem to have played a part in l’affaire Shinde, it is clearly a party that never sleeps, and, therefore, its challengers cannot afford to rest easy on old political compacts that have been broken by the ruling party’s relentless pursuit of power. The MVA should have urgently corrected course after the Rajya Sabha defeat but the apparent inaction hurt the coalition – in the Upper House polls, it failed to convince independent lawmakers to back its nominees, but in the MLC election, some Sena members appeared to have cross-voted. The party (and the alliance) may still save the day – but would do well to remember these lessons.