Why Himachal elections matter

Polls in the hill state pit the BJP and Congress in direct competition and mark the beginning of a poll season that will continue till 2024

The Great Indian Election Season has begun. The announcement of assembly elections in Himachal Pradesh by the Election Commission of India (ECI) on Friday kicked off an electoral cycle that will see state polls across seven large states over the next 18-odd months, culminating in the general election in 2024. These seven states — Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat this year, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, and Telangana the next — represent not only around a quarter of India’s population but also, with the exception of one (Telangana), crucial provinces where the two principal national parties, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress are largely in direct competition with each other. In recent years, with rising political awareness, voters have become increasingly discerning and now make distinct choices in state and national elections, but with all caveats in place, these elections will serve as a political barometer to understand the issues that will shape the 2024 elections and how political parties are responding to them. In 2017 and 2018, for example, protests by intermediate caste groups for quota-based protections to shield themselves from persistent economic and social downturn (and the response to this agitation from both above and below) and widespread agrarian distress were the standout electoral issues and had a major play in the 2019 Lok Sabha election as well.

Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar speaks during a press conference, October 14, 2022 (PTI)

Himachal Pradesh has a political tradition of voting out the incumbent. Yet, the ruling BJP is confident of bucking this trend, just as it did in Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh earlier this year. Its electoral plan appears straightforward — bank on the enormous popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the delivery record of the Union government while harping on its pet slogan of “double-engine” government (a reference to the same party being in power in the state and at the Centre). The party’s campaign will likely revolve around its push to bolster infrastructure, especially in the hilly regions, the successful Covid-19 vaccination campaign and its efforts in the areas of health care and education. But it may face headwinds from horticulturists who are upset with rising input costs, lack of quality jobs, and anger among government employees who are demanding a return to the old pension scheme.

For the Congress, the biggest headache is its lack of a mass leader after the death of former chief minister Virbhadra Singh. The party is riven by infighting and hasn’t even begun campaigning in full steam. Though its electoral triumphs last year — it won three assembly and one parliamentary bypoll — show that there are pockets of support for the party and discontent with the state government, the Congress will have to run a disciplined campaign to take advantage of this. The third player, the Aam Aadmi Party, is looking to make inroads on the promise of its governance model and work in the education and health sectors in Delhi and Punjab, The poll results in a state with a population of seven million cannot be extrapolated to gather any nationwide inference. But it, along with results in Gujarat where polls are also scheduled to be held this winter, will hold a portend. After all, to do well in 2024, the Congress has to outperform the BJP in state polls, where the ruling party usually does relatively poorly. The battle for India is afoot.