That Night in Abu Dhabi, Part II | Number Theory

For the second time in five years, Formula 1 has served up a decider in the form of a last race with the main title up for grabs

There’s something about a decider. For the second time in five years, Formula 1 has served up a decider in the form of a last race with the main title up for grabs. That too with not two but three protagonists across two teams. The last time the drivers’ title went down to the wire was in 2021, with a race where circumstances collided to create a last lap that will forever be told depending on whose side one was telling it from. That tale of two sides is captured in a taut 14-minute film on YouTube titled That Night in Abu Dhabi. This Sunday has many makings of a sequel.

This Sunday has many makings of a sequel.

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  Profiles in contrast

  In 2021, Max Verstappen of Red Bull and Lewis Hamilton of Mercedes went to Abu Dhabi deadlocked on points and also fuelled by animosity. Hamilton was chasing a record eighth title and Verstappen his first. Hamilton led till the last lap, but a safety car that ended only on the last race and a controversial ruling by race director Michael Masi saw Verstappen overtake Hamilton on the last lap. Verstappen is again a protagonist, and he’s the chaser this time too. A stellar second half of the season, coupled with mistakes from the McLaren duo of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, has seen him pare a deficit from 104 points to 12 points. Like Hamilton-Verstappen, the contrast in the driver personalities and how the two teams like to go racing makes the contest more compelling. While Red Bull are all about Verstappen, McLaren prefers to treat both its drivers equally and respect their chances of a title. While Red Bull comes across with bluster, McLaren can be emotive to the point of being un-F1like.
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  Ways to win

  While Red Bull have won four driver titles on the trot and eight in the last 15 years, McLaren’s last win came in 2008. Only 16 points separates the three drivers. Norris has 12 points on Verstappen and 16 on Piastri. If Norris finishes third or higher, no matter what the other two do, he wins the title. The current points system—principally, 25, 18 and 15, respectively, for the top three positions—came into force in 2010. In the 15 completed seasons since, there have been only four instances when a season went into the last race. In these four instances, besides the Verstappen-Hamilton deadlock, both possibilities have existed. From the point of view of Verstappen and Piastri, there’s been one instance of a driver swooping in from 15 points behind in the last race to win the title. From the point of view of Norris, there have been two instances of drivers clinging on in nervy races to win the title.
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  Odds and ends

  Mis-steps by McLaren in the last two races have cost their drivers a truckload of points. What could have been a straight McLaren fight at Abu Dhabi has turned into Verstappen also entering the picture—and not in a small way. While McLaren have frittered away points, partly by allowing their drivers to race each other and not picking one, Red Bull and Verstappen have maximised their gains. It’s that quality, and the fundamental differences in approach, that could shape this weekend as well. As per Formula1.com, the betting odds differentiate between the race and the title. As of Thursday, they placed Verstappen as the favourite to qualify first in Abu Dhabi and to win the race. Norris is marginally behind on the odds for the Abu Dhabi race, and Piastri some distance off. Yet, for the drivers’ title, it is Norris who has the best shot of winning, as per the odds.
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  Popular choices

  A Norris win would end a long title wait for McLaren. Its last title was Lewis Hamilton in 2008. It has since travelled from the front of the grid to the very back, ensuing a painstaking overhaul and change of identity. The nucleus of that multi-year overhaul are the very personnel who lead the team today—from CEO Zak Brown to team principal Andrea Stella to Norris. In that sense, a Norris win would be fitting, though Piastri also makes a strong case. Online search interest over the past month, which has seen three races, shows Norris to be more popular than Piastri. However, it is Verstappen, stitching together a comeback for the ages, who has piqued more interest. That relative interest peaked during his win in Qatar last weekend. Over this period, for the 71 countries for which search data was available, Norris was the most searched in just two (UK and St. Helena) and Piastri in just one (home country Australia). Verstappen and Red Bull on song are box office, but they will need to script a sequel of That Night in Abu Dhabi.