From worker apathy to anti-incumbency, key challenges for BJP in Uttar Pradesh

The sentiment is repeated across multiple constituencies where the BJP has repeated its sitting legislators. While the party seems bullish on repeating its 2017 performance when it came to power in the state with a brute majority, on the ground there is severe anti-incumbency that its legislators face.

In a market square in Uttar Pradesh’s Bhadhoi, bystanders seemed oblivious to a catchy song praising the sitting legislator and Bharatiya Janata Party leader Ravindra Nath Tripathi, who is seeking a re-election.

A polling officer carrying an EVM and other election material leaves for his polling booth, at a distribution centre at Pahadiya Mandi, in Varanasi on Sunday. (PTI)

“He comes around every day and no one stops to listen,” says a fruit seller not wishing to be named. The party’s high-octane campaign in the state shows little resonance on the ground and the song blaring from a megaphone atop an auto-rickshaw tailing the MLA’s convoy barely gets attention.

“The MLA has been largely missing these past years. He is campaigning because he has to…people here will vote for (Prime Minister Naredra) Modi if they want to vote for the BJP,” the fruit seller says.

The sentiment is repeated across multiple constituencies where the BJP has repeated its sitting legislators. While the party seems bullish on repeating its 2017 performance when it came to power in the state with a brute majority, on the ground there is severe anti-incumbency that its legislators face.

Consequently, it has been hard for the party leaders to motivate the cadre to canvas despite the campaign blitzkrieg of massive rallies, door-to-door canvassing and digital outreach.

Anti-incumbency and worker apathy

“Mahual udaseen hai (the atmosphere is dull),” says a BJP worker in Azamgarh, the family borough of the Samajwadi Party. He says workers who faced several challenges during the Covid-19 pandemic are hard-pressed when it comes to fielding questions about the “missing legislators”.

“The election eventually is being fought on Modi’s name,” he says.

The worker also complained that the cadre has been demotivated by the Tughlaki (dictatorial) style of chief minister Yogi Adityanath. “He does not seek our opinion; he keeps only a chosen few close and has made the party workers redundant by giving the babus (bureaucrats) all the power. If I cannot even get a ration card made, why will the voter listen to me when I ask them to vote,” he says.

Party leaders in the state speaking on condition of anonymity say the leadership erred in not announcing new faces to buck anti-incumbency. “In Varanasi (South) we have people who would go beating on the MLA Neelkanth Tewari’s door during the pandemic. He was nowhere to be seen. Yet, he managed to get a ticket. It seems the exit of the OBC leaders (Swamy Prasad Maurya, Dharam Singh Saini and Dara Singh Chauhan) has altered the earlier plans of dropping between 30-40% of the sitting MLAs,” a BJP leader says.

Overall, about 20-25% of the sitting MLAs were dropped or had their constituencies changed.

In several places, the campaigning picked pace only after rallies by senior ministers. “The Sangh’s (RSS) cadre was also tasked with the responsibility of motivating the voters after the turnout did not meet expectation in the first three rounds,” the leader adds.

Many in the party admit that the ”double-engine”, as the Modi-Adityanath duopoly are referred to is exaggerated and the campaign rests largely on the Prime Minister’s image as that of a “doer and incorruptible leader”.

“There is no double engine, it is just the PM acting like a crane (lifting the election),” a second leader says, requesting anonymity.

Policies and promises

While the opposition is on a spree, promising welfare measures like restoration of old-age pensions and free electricity, among others, the BJP workers say they have been questioned about the government’s economic policies and the absence of aid to keep businesses afloat.

“The mandi (slowdown) that began in 2017 after notebandi (demonetisation) was beginning to show improvement when Covid-19 struck. Small businesses in particular have been struggling and they expected targeted aid from the government. The atmanirbhar packages have little meaning for those who run small hotels or eateries and were forced to shut down,” says the worker in Azamgarh.

People acknowledge that the state government’s free ration helped them stave off hunger, but speak more about having benefitted from the central schemes such as the Awas Yojana for housing and the Kisan Nidhi that transfers money to farmers. Despite the state government’s claims of securing investments, the complaints are voluble.

“We have been running from pillar to post to get help for our sector, but there is no response. The carpet industry that earned over ₹13,000 crore in exports in 2020-21 and employs over 2 million across the country is struggling. But the government has no plans for us. Our demands for land, infrastructure, tax subsidies are unmet and we are slowly considering moving to Rajasthan that has better system in place for businesses,” says Imtiyaz Ahmad, a director at the Carpet Export Promotion Council (CEPC), a non-profit set up by the ministry of textiles to promote export of carpets and rugs.

Ahmed says there is a section of those involved in the trade who feel the industry has been overlooked “because of the perception that it is largely owned by Muslims.”

Anti-minority, upper-caste outfit

The BJP claims its social schemes have benefitted people across faiths and castes, but it has not been able to shed its image as that of an upper caste, majoritarian outfit.

Rajeev Yadav of the Rihai Manch, an advocacy group, who is contesting from Azamgarh, says his agenda is fighting for the identity of the place and drawing a distinction between terror and cases of alleged terror that are raked only around elections.

“If you look at the previous elections, whether it was Patna in 2014 or UP in 2017, there were attacks carried out at a Modi rally or encounters just around the polls. The decision to award death sentence to the accused in the Ahmedabad blast case was also kept reserved from September and announced only when elections are in full swing. This shows that the party draws certain leverage from stoking the issue of terror,” he says.

The government has branded communities that are not traditionally its supporters, he added. “This government believes in targeting individuals from communities — Pasis and Yadav are criminals, STs are naxals and Muslims are terrorists,” he adds.

In Varanasi’s Peeli Kothi, the anger against the ruling dispensation is visible. Here, weavers of the famed Banarasi silk complain about discrimination.

“When it is Hindu festivals, we are expected to shut meat shops. We are constantly asked to prove our patriotism even though we’ve been here for generations. Yahan ka mudda hai musalaman (the issue here is Muslims),” says Zahuruddin Ansari, a local weaver.

The minority is upset by comments made by senior party leaders, especially chief minister Adityanath. Residents say even if the government’s claims of “no riots” are to be believed, the community lives in fear.

“We have been with the PM since 2014; our leaders were part of a dinner that was hosted for him. And now the CM makes targeted comments even as his seniors are reaching out to Shia leaders,” a Shia leader in Varanasi says, requesting anonymity.

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In Varanasi, where Shias and Sunnis are engaged in a tussle over land for a site of worship in Doshipura, the BJP earned political support from the former by siding with them. But the constant fuelling of religious polarisation may not see the party getting the same support, he says.

“For the first time, 45,000 minority front jobs were given. But these members aren’t able to motivate Muslims; they could have got 20-25% of the total votes,” he adds.

Referring to the support being shown by the Muslims to the Samajwadi Party, the Shia leader said: “In 2014, when Modi ji’s convoy was to pass Madanpur, a Muslim dominated area, some in the BJP were apprehensive. But when the convoy finally passed, it was showered with petals. We also felt happy that he will be our PM. But people in his party, instead of banking on their work, are banking on the old Hindu-Muslim trope,” he says.