West UP kicks off battle for heartland

This time around the contest is expected to be more heated. The yearlong protests against three now-scrapped central farm laws galvanised farm groups and the Opposition have attempted to counter the communal polarisation between the Jats and Muslims that erupted after the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots.

In 2017, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) swept western Uttar Pradesh on its way to a landslide victory that brought it to power in India’s most populous state after 15 years. Of the 58 seats which go to the polls on Thursday, the party won 33 out of 37 seats in Meerut and Saharanpur division, on the back of the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a rainbow Hindu coalition, communal polarisation and the promise of jobs and better law and order.

An aerial view of the gathering of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) supporters at a public meeting of Union home minister Amit Shah, in Hardoi. (ANI Photo)

This time around, however, the contest is expected to be more heated. The yearlong protests against three now-scrapped central farm laws galvanised farm groups and the Opposition have attempted to counter the communal polarisation between the Jats and Muslims that erupted after the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots, which killed 60 people and displaced over 40,000.

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The constituencies include 37 in eight districts of the Meerut and Saharanpur regions and 21 in three districts of the Braj region, which includes Agra, Aligarh and Mathura. Caste dynamics and unemployment are expected to play a key role in the region, which is also considered a stronghold of Dalit politics.

During a campaign in Braj, BSP chief Mayawati said: “Reject all three, the Congress, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Samajwadi Party because they all are anti Dalits and vote for BSP so that it can form a full-majority government as it did in 2007 and restore names of districts named by BSP regime after those held in high regard by Dalits.”

The impact of the farm protest is expected to be the maximum in the Meerut and Saharanpur regions. In 2017, the BJP won 33 of the 37 seats with the Samajwadi Party (SP) winning just two and the Bahujan Samaj Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal one each.

This time, the SP-RLD alliance is banking on the Jats, a dominant caste who are primarily farmers with large landholdings and influence other smaller communities in villages. The Jats backed the BJP in 2017 but this time, the SP-RLD alliance hopes that agricultural distress makes them switch their vote. The BJP has raised the spectre of communal riots and promised better law and order, and quicker payments of sugarcane dues.

RLD chief Jayant Chaudhary had recently reached out to farmers during a rally in Braj, saying: “I am not chavanni (coin) thus would not change my stand. Farmer is honest and will stay on its words. If farmer and poor are honest than grandson of Chaudhary Charan Singh will also remain honest.”

His ally, Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav, too, ensured a focus on farmers during campaigning. “We will make 300 units of domestic electricity free and no bill will be charged for electricity used in irrigation by farmers,” he said during a campaign rally.

State sugarcane minister Suresh Rana is contesting from Thanabhawan, state minister Kapil Dev Agarwal from Muzaffarnagar, Sangeet Som from Sarshana and actor-turned-politician Archana Gautam from Hastinapur, among others.

RLD won only one seat of Chaprauli in the 2017 assembly elections. The party’s candidate, Sahender Ramala, later joined BJP. Farmers’ movement helped revive the party on its home turf, and its chief Jayant Singh Chaudhary now hopes to win back support of the Jats, who voted in majority to the BJP in the 2014, 2017 and 2019 elections.

Out of the 21 seats in the Braj region, the BJP won 20 in 2017, sweeping Agra and Aligarh districts while losing only one seat-- in Mathura -- to the BSP. This time, four senior state ministers -- Sri Kant Sharma from Mathura-Vrindavan, Chaudhary Laxmi Narain from Chhata, Sandeep Singh from Atrauli and GS Dharmesh from Agra Cantonment -- are contesting from the region.

A high court bench, international airport, barrage at the Yamuna, lack of industries and employment are among the key issues in the region.

Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati began her election campaign from Agra district, which has a large chunk of Dalit voters, has been a BSP stronghold ever since Kanshi Ram founded the party in 1984. The BSP chief is working to regain hold over the base vote of the party–Dalits—after the BJP made an inroad into the Scheduled Caste voters in the 2017 UP assembly elections. In the 2017 UP polls, the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) was able to make an inroad into the BSP citadel by bagging all the nine assembly seats in the district. The BSP candidates were runners-up in the eight assembly seats

Agra, with its nine seats in the district, is known as the Dalit capital of Uttar Pradesh, fuelled by the 21% of its population that belongs to the scheduled caste. It has a large footwear industry, which provides employment to these communities, particularly Jatavs, a core BSP vote bank.

In 2007, when Mayawati became chief minister, the BSP won six of nine assembly seats in Agra. In 2012, when she didn’t, it still won six of nine. In 2017, however, the BJP swept all nine seats, with the BSP coming second in seven.