Highest single-day spike in Covid cases sends alarm bells ringing

The district on Wednesday reported its highest single-day spike in coronavirus (Covid-19) infections, with 611 new cases recorded. The number of active cases also

The district on Wednesday reported its highest single-day spike in coronavirus (Covid-19) infections, with 611 new cases recorded. The number of active cases also surpassed 4,000 infections, a week after the count hit the 3,000 mark.

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The daily new cases have increased by nearly 50% in less than two weeks, taking the tally of Covid-19 cases to 31,996. Experts said that the pandemic fatigue, indoor transmission of the virus during winter months and the reopening of business and outdoor activities will lead to further increase in the transmission if preventive steps are not taken.

It is the fifth time since October 16 that a new single-day record spike was recorded. Virus resurgence to high levels started with 294 new infections recorded on October 16, which climbed to 304 on October 21 and further to 398 on October 24. An uptick of 498 new cases was reported on October 31, followed by 529 on November 1.

The alarming increase in Covid-19 infections has also raised concerns over the increasing positivity rate — the ratio of positive cases to the total number of tests conducted — over the last two weeks.

Data shows that weekly average positivity rate is now almost 15%, up from 12% reported in the last week of October. Epidemiologically, a higher positivity rate suggests higher transmission with more number of people who haven’t been tested yet. On whether the testing levels are keeping up with the disease transmission, experts said that the positivity rate is moderately high and there is a scope of increasing the testing instead of simply focusing on high-risk population.

As per the district health department data, an average 3,000 tests are conducted daily, of which nearly 90% are administered through Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR), the most reliable test for Covid-19. The rapid antigen tests have declined in the last one week as the health department has been running short of kits provided by the state government.

“High positivity rate is due to testing of only high-risk people. It is, therefore, important to increase the testing to reduce the transmission, otherwise, it would lead to a further surge in infection,” said Dr Lalit Kant, former head of the department of epidemiology and infectious disease at the Indian Council of Medical Research.

Dr Rajesh Kumar, former head of community medicine department and school of public health, PGIMER-Chandigarh, said that positivity rate of Gurugram is moderately high. “Data shows that new Covid-19 cases have doubled in less than two weeks. Considering the incubation period of the infection, which is five to seven days, the new 611 confirmed cases contracted the virus five to six days back. In absence of precautionary norms or testing, the infection can double to 1,200 in next one week,” said Kumar.

Taking results of the second serological survey of Gurugram into account, Kumar said that nearly 70% of the population is susceptible to infection. “Results shows that nearly 26% population in urban areas of Gurugram has developed antibodies against infection, which means nearly 74% are vulnerable to the infection. With its dense population and increased mobility, Gurugram is seeing the outbreak of the pandemic within this susceptible population, which is huge,” said Kumar, suggesting that infection rate must be suppressed until a vaccine is available.

According to Kumar, epidemiologically, without taking any precautionary measures, the coronavirus can impact near 60% of the susceptible population, which makes it crucial to suppress the infection. “It can be done in the current situation, but precautionary norms are to be taken seriously by citizens.”

Kant said that if serious measures are not taken to curtail the infection then the existing health care infrastructure will be overburdened. “People who require timely treatment may be devoid of it if cases of Covid-19 continue to spread at the current pace. It is a bad situation across Delhi-NCR, as high transmission is taking place. Government has to take serious measures, which can be unpopular, to curtail the interaction and mixing of people to bring down the infection,” he said.

In Gurugram, the district administration and health department, too, are issuing advisories as cases continue to mount. Dr Virender Yadav, chief medical officer, said, “Contact tracing will be increased to spread the transmission. It is high time for the citizens to take the deadly infection seriously, as rising numbers would now cast its impact on mortality in the next few months.”