Unlocking Gurugram: In 11 days, city witnessed 2,148 cases

Gurugram has witnessed a sharp spike in Covid-19 cases after lockdown restrictions began to be eased on May 18, with around 92.5 percent of the district’s total

Gurugram has witnessed a sharp spike in Covid-19 cases after lockdown restrictions began to be eased on May 18, with around 92.5 percent of the district’s total cases as of Saturday emerging since then .

HT Image

A sharper surge has been seen in the last 11 days alone, during the first phase of a nationwide ‘unlocking’, with 71.7 percent of the district’s total cases emerging during this time.

From 204 positive cases being detected between March 4 and May 17, Gurugram’s total tally rose to 774 by May 31. The tally further kept climbing, with at least 2,922 Covid-19 positive cases being registered till June 12

Despite the alarming numbers, experts and officials insisted that there was a need to reopen Gurugram’s economy, where major industries — particularly automobiles, IT, pharmaceuticals — are concentrated.

Rohit Prasad, an economist and professor at Gurugram’s Management Development Institute, said, “The economic fallout of the lockdown has been unprecedented. There is really no alternative to reviving the local economy, except for allowing people to go to work. Most people in India do not have the luxury of working from home.” He added that Gurugram, as the largest urban agglomeration in Haryana, generates a lion’s share of the state’s revenue (close to 60%), and is also its largest employer in both formal and informal sectors. Any further restrictions on movement will mar their employment prospects, and Gurugram’s financial revival,” Prasad added.

Ramping up testing, surveillance is imperative

The need to open up poses two major challenges for Gurugram’s Covid-19 response. The first is an urgent need to increase testing capabilities, and the second is to increase the number of available field staff for contact tracing and isolation of patients, according to Gurugram’s newly appointed chief medical officer, Dr Virender Yadav.

“Before lockdown, things in Gurugram were under control. From late April to mid-May, Gurugram’s contribution to the national case load was not very high, unlike Delhi, Mumbai, or Ahmedabad. The surge has happened post lockdown, but other parts of the country are facing this issue too. We cannot remain under lockdown indefinitely,” Yadav said.

Gurugram’s rising Covid-19 cases are reflected in a range of data-points, from its quick doubling-rate (7 days), to its test-positivity rate (which stands at an all time high of 44.4 percent for June, so far), along with a high daily growth-rate of cases (about 10 percent), and a declining recovery rate (due to an increasing daily case load).

“Our test positivity rate is extremely high, which rules out any option of pooled testing. A high test-positivity rate also indicates that we may not be testing enough people. So, we need to meet the increase in number of cases with more tests. This is my first priority. We have conducted a trial of 40 samples in Gurugram on Thursday, and by next week the lab here should be testing 200 samples per day,” Yadav said.

Dr Prabhakaran Dorairaj, vice president (research & policy), at the Public Health Foundation of India, also emphasised the need to ramp up testing in light of new cases which have emerged post-lockdown. “The more cases you find, the more primary contacts you will need to trace and test. So naturally, increasing that capacity at this stage is imperative. Another cause of concern is the strain on the healthcare system. Authorities need to ensure that those who can stay at home are able to do so, and will need to deploy a larger workforce to trace and isolate positive cases,” he said.

Keeping mortality rate low is key

A senior official in Haryana’s Integrated Disease Surveillance Program explained that, without adequately ramping up testing and without strengthening field surveillance, the district may possibly see a rise in case fatality rate, which is so far much lower than other severely hit districts.

“Our surveillance is strong because we have been able to detect cases early and have been able to treat them. As numbers rise, we need more tests and better field surveillance with more officers so that we can continue to achieve this. Without a combination of these two, the danger is that upcoming cases will either go undetected, or may be detected too late. This would lead to a higher mortality rate. We are working to avert such a scenario,” said the official.

However, available reports suggest that such adverse consequences are already starting to emerge in the district. Of the 19 deaths registered in Gurugram so far, 15 occurred in the last five days. Of these, three of the victims had passed away before they could reach Civil Hospital.