China's military drills near Taiwan: Is this strategic posturing?
This article is authored by Ananya Raj Kakoti, scholar, international relations, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.
Between March 16 and 17, 2025, China conducted large-scale air and sea military exercises near Taiwan, escalating tensions in an already volatile region. The exercises, which involved a substantial deployment of military assets, included warships, fighter jets, drones, and strategic bombers, many of which breached Taiwan’s airspace and territorial waters. China justified these drills as a necessary response to recent statements and actions by both the United States (US) and Taiwan, whilst Taipei’s defence minister, Wellington Koo, denounced them as destabilising to regional peace. The incident has once again brought the Taiwan Strait into the global spotlight, highlighting the broader geopolitical struggle between Beijing and Washington.
The scope of China’s military operations over these two days was extensive. According to Taiwan’s ministry of national defence, a total of 59 Chinese military aircraft, including J-10 and J-16 fighter jets as well as reconnaissance drones, were detected operating near Taiwan. Critically, 42 of these aircraft crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait, an informal but widely respected boundary that has traditionally acted as a buffer between the two sides. This marks one of the largest incursions of Chinese forces into Taiwan’s vicinity in recent years, reflecting a notable shift in Beijing’s military posture.
Beyond aerial incursions, Chinese naval forces also carried out extensive drills. Reports suggest that at least 90 Chinese warships were active in the surrounding waters, participating in joint air-sea combat training. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theatre Command stated that these drills were designed to "test joint operational capabilities under real combat conditions," raising concerns that China is rehearsing for a potential blockade or invasion scenario. Taiwan responded by deploying its own naval and air assets to monitor the situation, scrambling aircraft and dispatching patrol boats to ensure the island’s security.
China’s foreign ministry framed the military exercises as a “resolute response” to foreign interference in its domestic affairs. Beijing has long maintained that Taiwan is an integral part of its territory and has repeatedly warned against any moves that could be perceived as promoting Taiwan’s independence. The latest drills, according to Chinese officials, were triggered by statements from both the US and Taiwanese leadership, which Beijing claimed had emboldened separatist elements within Taiwan.
One of the key points of contention was a recent shift in the US State Department’s language regarding Taiwan. Changes in official documents removed previous references to Taiwan being part of China, which Beijing interpreted as a significant departure from Washington’s longstanding One China policy. Additionally, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te had recently reaffirmed Taiwan’s commitment to strengthening its self-defence capabilities, a statement that was viewed in Beijing as a further step towards formalising independence. In response, China not only carried out military drills but also intensified its diplomatic rhetoric, warning that continued foreign interference could lead to "serious consequences."
Taiwanese authorities swiftly condemned the exercises, labelling them as a reckless provocation. Defence minister Wellington Koo described the drills as "yet another attempt by Beijing to intimidate Taiwan and undermine regional stability." He further argued that such military actions only strengthened Taiwan’s resolve to defend its sovereignty. In a demonstration of preparedness, Taiwan placed its military forces on high alert, increasing patrols and conducting emergency readiness drills.
Taiwan’s government has been steadily increasing its defence budget in response to growing threats from Beijing. In 2025, Taiwan’s military expenditure reached 2.45% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with plans to allocate additional funds towards modernising its missile defence systems, naval fleet, and air force capabilities. Taiwan has also been expanding its asymmetric warfare strategies, focusing on enhancing its ability to counter a potential Chinese invasion through mobile missile units, sea mines, and advanced drone technology.
Washington, which has a legal obligation under the Taiwan Relations Act to assist in Taiwan’s self-defence, strongly criticised China’s actions. The US State Department called the drills "irresponsible and escalatory," while reiterating its support for Taiwan’s right to maintain its defensive capabilities.
In recent years, US-Taiwan military cooperation has deepened, with increasing arms sales and joint military training programmes. Taiwan’s 2025 Quadrennial Defence Review outlined plans to enhance intelligence-sharing with the US and conduct more frequent joint exercises. This growing military relationship has been a significant point of friction between the US and China, with Beijing repeatedly warning that such actions would only lead to further instability in the region.
China’s military exercises near Taiwan have sent ripples across the Indo-Pacific region. Japan, which has its own territorial disputes with China and views Taiwan’s security as integral to its national interests, voiced concern over Beijing’s growing assertiveness. Similarly, Australia and South Korea urged for restraint, calling on all parties to avoid actions that could lead to unintended military confrontations.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) also expressed alarm, with member states fearing that escalating tensions could spill over into broader regional conflicts. Many Southeast Asian countries, which have economic ties with both China and the US, are increasingly caught in the crossfire of this geopolitical struggle. As China continues to expand its military reach, neighbouring nations are reassessing their own security postures, with some considering closer defence alignments with the US and its allies.
Beijing’s military drills near Taiwan were not merely a reaction to diplomatic statements; they were also a demonstration of China’s evolving military capabilities and strategic ambitions. By conducting such extensive exercises, China aims to send a clear message: it has the ability to conduct large-scale operations around Taiwan and is willing to use military force if necessary.
At the same time, these exercises also serve domestic political purposes. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP), under President Xi Jinping, has consistently framed Taiwan’s reunification as a historical mission. By taking an aggressive stance, the CCP reinforces its nationalist credentials and consolidates support among domestic audiences. However, this aggressive posturing carries risks. If China’s military activity continues to escalate, it may push Taiwan closer to formal independence rather than deterring it, and could also prompt stronger military responses from the US and its allies.
China’s military drills near Taiwan in mid-March 2025 have highlighted the growing fragility of peace in the Taiwan Strait. The scale and intensity of these exercises mark a significant escalation, underscoring China’s determination to challenge Taiwan’s status quo and counter perceived foreign interference. However, the response from Taiwan, the US, and regional stakeholders suggests that Beijing’s actions may ultimately backfire, hardening opposition to its military pressure rather than achieving its strategic objectives.
As tensions continue to rise, diplomatic engagement and crisis management mechanisms become increasingly vital to prevent accidental conflict. Whether China, Taiwan, and the US can find a sustainable way to manage their differences remains uncertain, but the stakes could not be higher. A miscalculation by any party could have catastrophic consequences, making this one of the most pressing security issues in the world today.
This article is authored by Ananya Raj Kakoti, scholar, international relations, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.
