Shifting political tides in the Maldives: Implications for India

This article is authored by Neelima A, associate, research, Centre for Public Policy Research.

The upcoming Maldives presidential election holds historical significance as it features seven candidates vying to challenge incumbent President Ibrahim Mohammed Solih. The presence of former president Abdulla Yameen, who is advocating for an India-out campaign while aligning with China, adds complexity to the situation. This raises questions about India's ability to sustain its existing friendly relations with the Maldives in the event of a change in leadership. Geopolitical factors are pivotal in shaping the political dynamics of the Maldives, as both India and China have high stakes in the election's outcome.

Maldives

India's keen interest in the Maldives can be attributed to its strategic geographical location, as it serves as a crucial crossroads for vital maritime routes. Ensuring maritime security and safeguarding the free movement of vessels through these waters is of utmost importance to India.

India's relationship with the Maldives faced challenges during Yameen's tenure, but New Delhi witnessed a significant improvement in relations under President Solih. The 2020 "India-out" campaign of Yameen stated that the 2023 elections aimed to reduce India's influence in the Maldives. Under President Solih's leadership, the "India First Policy of Maldives" was upheld. Both sides entered into numerous Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) aimed at bolstering bilateral and economic ties, encompassing areas such as infrastructure development, disaster management, and women and child development.

The uncertainty surrounding the upcoming elections and the overall political climate in the Maldives raises the question of whether China's influence in the island nation will diminish. China itself faces challenges in this regard. Notably, there is a growing trend among mainstream political parties to advocate for friendly relations with India. This shift is partly a result of the internal divisions within the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) and a leadership crisis within the opposition. Leaders from both sides have shown a prioritisation of Indian security concerns and sensitivities over those of China. The only scenario in which Beijing might benefit is if Abdulla Yameen becomes eligible to contest the elections. Currently, he is facing criminal charges related to corruption and money laundering. He also needs to successfully quell factionalism within his party.

It is an opportune moment for India to act wisely. The incoming government will likely prioritise advancing its nation's interests, even if it means setting aside the current opposition India encounters from Yameen's party. India should emphasise a development-oriented approach towards the Maldives, taking into consideration the pressing issue of unemployment currently affecting the country.

India has embarked on its most extensive infrastructure project in the Maldives, known as the Greater Male Connectivity Project. This significant initiative is supported by a grant of USD 100 million and a substantial Line of Credit (LOC) amounting to USD 400 million from India. Notably, this project surpasses the scale of the Sinamale Bridge Connectivity Project, which received assistance from China. Despite facing challenges related to the project's construction complexity, it is imperative for India to prioritise its early completion.

In the upcoming years, projects designed to enhance youth employability will prove highly beneficial for the Maldives. A substantial portion of the Maldivian population, exceeding 35% (with females at 36% and males at 35%), consists of young individuals aged 15 to 35 who are preparing to enter the workforce. Despite the Maldives' impressive economic growth, largely attributed to tourism, the country grapples with a significant challenge: a high rate of youth unemployment, which stood at 15.13% as of 2022, according to the World Bank. India's High Impact Community Development Project (HICDP) in the Maldives, aimed at fostering socio-economic development in local communities, empowering youth, and preserving culture and heritage, should also give special attention to creating employment opportunities for the youth.

Despite the anticipated challenges that India may encounter due to the evolving political landscape in the Maldives, it is crucial for India to stay committed to its priorities and continue its efforts to drive development in the archipelago nation. As the elections conclude, the Maldives is likely to adopt a pragmatic approach, striving for a balanced relationship between India and China. The primary focus for the Maldives will be to explore opportunities that will maximise its developmental gains.

This article is authored by Neelima A, associate, research, Centre for Public Policy Research.