The Ukraine crisis and Europe’s lost opportunity - Hindustan Times
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The Ukraine crisis and Europe’s lost opportunity

ByHindustan Times
Jun 14, 2022 07:33 PM IST

The article has been authored by KA Dhananjay, Gateway House, Mumbai

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has turned out to be one of the most unforgettable events in Europe’s recent history. With conflict brewing next door, Europe’s future hanged on dire straits and had to face several challenges coming its way; mainly on the security and energy fronts. While Europe tried extensively to meander through the crisis, strategic autonomy remained a critical area that it inadvertently failed to address.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has turned out to be one of the most unforgettable events in Europe’s recent history.(HT File)
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has turned out to be one of the most unforgettable events in Europe’s recent history.(HT File)

Strategic autonomy or independence from external influence in decision making has been a tough bargain for Europe against historical American influence that has lingered in the region since World War I. Though Europe’s post-World War alliance with the United States (US) brought positives to European security and development– especially in the form of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the Marshall Plan, perennial US influence has not reflected well on Europe’s political credibility nor its resilience for the future.

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The US has been the pivot in Europe for a long time and its continued supremacy in the continent can be comprehended based on three dimensions. First, European security is deeply rooted in NATO, which is considered a brainchild of Cold War-era US diplomacy. Through NATO’s collective security doctrine, European allies had the opportunity to strategically bank on US-affirmed security guarantees and assurances to counter external threats, including those from Russia. As a result, the US and its military prowess remained sacrosanct to European security–eventually paving way for cementing American hegemony over the continent.

Second, Europe is at the centre of US-Russia great-power rivalry and hence its diplomatic choices are subject to geopolitical influences. During the peak of the Cold War, western Europe sided with the US to secure its interests against emerging Russian expansionism. Whereas post the Cold War, it was Russia who felt threatened by NATO’s eastward expansion. Eventually, Russia’s response by exerting aggressive tactics on countries like Ukraine and Georgia, not only provided an apt raison d'etre for Europe to remain in the American camp; but also pushed historically neutral countries like Sweden and Finland to try and join NATO.

Third, political disunity in Europe has also been a driver for US interference in the region and was a characteristic feature of NATO’s response to Ukraine before the conflict. On one hand, Eastern European states favoured a strong NATO posture against Russia; on the other, western European states like France and Germany were concerned for their respective economic and energy interests with Russia and were initially reluctant to even provide active support to Ukraine. That being the case, US intervention in NATO seemed like a shot in the arm for uniting Europe at the brink of the crisis.

With the US already in the picture, the Ukraine crisis presented a severe challenge for the European Union (EU) in drawing its path toward achieving strategic autonomy. Whether it was sanctions on Russia or providing military aid to Ukraine, noticeably, the US was at the forefront of European diplomacy during the crisis. Even when the EU had initial reservations about banning Russian oil and the entry of Russian ships into Europe, the US tactically persuaded Brussels via the G7 to fall in line with the American stance.

Nevertheless, the EU’s resolve towards the US on Ukraine comes at a time when the bloc was avidly batting for self-reliance and resilience in other sectors such as sustainable development, green transition and digital technology. The EU’s pandemic-era governance through initiatives like “Next Generation EU” also was an epitome and silver lining for aligning its strategic resurgence. Yet, Europe failed to sustain the momentum it received and instead looked to shift its responsibility to the US.

Well, the EU is not out of options and still has the potential to chart its independent path away from the US, especially with the support of countries like France who have lately favoured strategic independence as a policy narrative. When France took over the EU Council presidency in January, strategic autonomy featured as one of its top priorities. While the French role in shaping the EU’s autonomy was appreciated, such moves have also been subject to criticism from within the fold. For example, eastern European states believed that by distancing the US, their scope for seeking strong security derivatives via NATO against prospective Russian threats would shrink.

Irrespective of the merits, internal differences amongst European states on the issue of seeking strategic autonomy bring good news, at least for the US. From an American perspective, Europe seeking greater strategic autonomy would be disastrous for US interest’s vis-a-vis Russia and would inevitably destabilise the foundations of its seven-decade-old transatlantic policy. Hence, as long as Europe’s autonomy stays derailed, Washington stands to gain and further its supremacy over Brussels.

Since Independence, India has always valued strategic autonomy as a core ideal of its foreign policy. The very fact that India chose to stay neutral on the Ukraine conflict; even after facing intense pressure from the US to condemn Russia, reflects highly on its credibility as a country not changing its foreign policy suit external influence or persuasion. In this light, India’s credentials as a “no-strings” attached nation provide an excellent opportunity for the EU to learn and adapt, especially at a time when it has shown keen interest to work with New Delhi in the Indo-Pacific region.

By looping India in as a key partner in its Indo-Pacific strategy, the EU will have an opportunity to closely observe Indian diplomacy at work. Consequently, the EU’s policy contours will also be determined by how well it manages to understand and work with India, regardless of the latter’s position in the Ukraine conflict. This would mean that the EU would also have to remain independent and objective in its approach while realising shared goals– including considering China’s threat in the Indo-Pacific at a par with Russia’s actions in Ukraine. In due course, the EU could expect India’s addition to be a learning curve for sharing an independent political space in the Indo-Pacific.

(The article has been authored by KA Dhananjay, Gateway House, Mumbai)

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