Understanding India’s relations with Central Asia
This article is authored by Pravesh Kumar Gupta, associate fellow (Eurasia), Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi.
India and Central Asia have a rich historical relationship that influences their cultural, political and economic exchanges today. As they collaborate in trade, energy, security, and cultural matters, essential questions arise about the depth and sustainability of these ties. It’s important to consider whether their partnerships promote long-term stability and growth or merely serve short-term strategic interests. Despite opportunities following the erstwhile Soviet Union's collapse, India has struggled to engage strategically with Central Asia for over three decades, achieving less than other external players. However, since Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi took office in 2014, there has been renewed momentum in strengthening India’s ties with Central Asian nations, reflecting a commitment to enhancing cooperation with this vital region.
In 2015, he became the first Indian PM to visit all five Central Asian nations—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—in a single trip. This ground-breaking visit underscored India’s commitment to engaging with Central Asia and laid the foundation for deeper collaboration on issues of mutual interest. Under Modi's leadership, strategic initiatives were launched to strengthen ties with the Central Asian republics, recognising the region's importance as part of India's extended neighbourhood. Modi emphasised the importance of fostering relationships based on mutual interests, shared cultural connections, and regional stability.
India's inclusion as a permanent member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in 2017 further indicated its intent to engage more actively with Central Asia. Prior to this, there was no formal forum for direct engagement with all five Central Asian nations collectively. Two years later, the India-Central Asia Dialogue at the foreign minister level was initiated, providing New Delhi with a platform to discuss bilateral and multilateral relations. Complementing this diplomatic outreach, the India-Central Asia Business Council was established in 2020 to promote trade and investment between the regions. These positive developments culminated in the first India-Central Asia Leaders' Summit in 2022, a virtual meeting with significant outcomes for enhanced cooperation.
However, despite these progressive steps, India's relations with Central Asia appear to have plateaued. The lack of substantial progress raises questions about the effectiveness of India’s foreign policy strategies in the region. India's membership in the SCO, for instance, is often perceived as underutilised. The organisation is heavily influenced by the strategic priorities of China and Russia, limiting India's ability to assert its interests effectively. India's engagement with SCO member states has remained largely bilateral rather than multilateral, which reduces the collective benefits the organisation could offer.
Economic interaction and trade relations between India and Central Asia also remain limited. Persistent trade barriers, insufficient infrastructure, and logistical challenges hinder robust economic ties. Connectivity issues, particularly concerning the development of reliable transport corridors, continue to obstruct deeper economic engagement.
A key aspect of India's connectivity challenges lies in the under-performance of the Chabahar Port project in Iran. Located on Iran's southeastern coast, Chabahar is strategically positioned to serve as a gateway for India’s trade with Afghanistan and Central Asia, especially given Pakistan’s denial of transit access to Indian goods. Despite its potential, the port's development has been hampered by a series of challenges, including procurement issues, sanctions, and logistical constraints.
A major obstacle has been the difficulty in procuring essential equipment due to international sanctions on Iran. While India successfully delivered six harbour cranes manufactured in Italy, acquiring advanced German equipment like rail-mounted quay cranes has proven difficult under the sanctions’ regime.
Further complicating matters is the incomplete Chabahar-Zahedan railway line, which is crucial for linking the port to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Although a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed between India's IRCON and the Iranian rail ministry for financing and construction, concerns over secondary United States’ sanctions have stalled progress. While the US granted a sanctions waiver, finding suppliers willing to operate under such constraints remains challenging.
Additionally, the absence of a direct shipping link from India to Chabahar hinders operational efficiency. Currently, only Iran’s State-owned IRISL and a private firm, Sarjak Container Lines, operate limited services. The low volume of return cargo further reduces operational viability.
To fully realise Chabahar’s potential, India must prioritise long-term investment commitments, propose extended contracts (such as a 50-year lease agreement), and work with Iran to establish the Chabahar Business Forum for regional stakeholders. Developing Phase-2 of the port, which includes an oil export terminal, can further elevate Chabahar's strategic significance. Recently, US President Donald Trump signed an order that could impose sanctions on India due to its investment in Iran's Chabahar port. However, there is little clarity regarding how this order might affect India's role in Chabahar.
India-Central Asia dialogue, which was to take place every year, did not take place last year. This is happening when more and more countries are trying to engage with Central Asia. This gives the impression that India is not serious about, or does not prioritise, its engagement with this region. Scholars also argue that China's deep penetration in Central Asia is the primary reason for India's perceived lack of seriousness. However, this perspective is not accurate, as India's involvement in the region is driven not by political ambitions but by goodwill fostered through centuries-old historical relations. On the other hand, Beijing sought to have more influence on this region for its geostrategic leverages.
At a time when Central Asian countries are very sensitive about their interests and what a country can offer them in terms of political, economic, and diplomatic relations, India must act accordingly. A more proactive, consistent, and strategic approach is required to revitalise engagement and address persistent challenges. While India has made important strides in engaging with Central Asia and the Chabahar Port project, persistent challenges continue to limit progress. To break free from this stagnation, India must adopt a more proactive, sustained, and strategically coordinated approach, emphasising multilateralism, infrastructure development, and economic diplomacy. Revitalising relations with Central Asia and fully realising the potential of the Chabahar Port will be pivotal for India’s long-term strategic and economic aspirations in the region.
To enhance India’s policy towards Central Asia and deepen its engagement, the following recommendations could be considered:
* Focus on developing and upgrading transportation and logistics infrastructure that connects India with Central Asia. Investing in transport corridors, such as the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) or enhancing the Chabahar Port’s capabilities, could facilitate smoother trade routes and reduce dependence on overland routes through Pakistan. India must also invite like-minded and interested Central Asian countries to invest in these projects.
* Increase the frequency of high-level visits and diplomatic exchanges. Regular dialogues and updates among foreign ministers and other key officials can help maintain momentum in bilateral relations and encourage the exploration of new areas for collaboration.
* Establish trade facilitation agreements that reduce barriers and improve market access. Creating a Central Asia-India Free Trade Agreement (FTA) could help bolster economic ties, promote investments, and enhance joint ventures.
* Promote cultural diplomacy through scholarships, academic partnerships, and cultural festivals to foster people-to-people connections. Encouraging educational exchanges can build goodwill and shared understanding among younger generations, positioning India favourably within the region.
* Actively participate in SCO initiatives to ensure India’s interests are represented. Propose collaborative projects within the SCO framework that focus on security, counter-terrorism, and economic cooperation, while also advocating for a more balanced power dynamic within the organisation.
* Engage in energy partnerships with Central Asian nations, involving investments in renewable energy, green energy, and energy resource exploration. Establishing joint energy projects could create mutual dependencies and strengthen economic ties.
* Enhance collaboration on regional security, focusing on counter-terrorism and drug trafficking. Establishing a cooperative security framework through joint exercises and intelligence-sharing will strengthen mutual trust and create an effective mechanism for both bilateral and multilateral efforts.
* India can leverage its cultural heritage, technology, and innovation sectors to position itself as a partner for development in Central Asia. Initiatives in health care, education, and technology transfer can generate goodwill and strengthen ties.
* Form a dedicated task force within the Indian government focused solely on Central Asia. This task force can coordinate efforts across various ministries, set clear strategic goals, and ensure that Central Asia remains a priority in India’s foreign policy.
* Establish mechanisms for regular review and assessment of India’s engagement strategies in Central Asia. Analysing the effectiveness of existing policies and initiatives can provide insights and allow for adjustments to ensure successful outcomes.
India, as a natural partner of the Central Asian countries, must make serious efforts to enhance its presence in the region. The momentum that India’s Central Asia policy gained in 2015 needs to be revitalised and expedited. Amidst the ongoing global geopolitical turmoil, there are favourable conditions in the region, and New Delhi should take on a more constructive role that benefits both sides. By implementing these recommendations, India can significantly enhance its policy towards Central Asia, fostering stronger and more resilient relationships that will benefit both regions in the long-term.
This article is authored by Pravesh Kumar Gupta, associate fellow (Eurasia), Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi.