Assembly election: How accurate were Maharashtra, Jharkhand exit polls in 2019?

Exit poll results: The results of the exit polls are expected to pour in soon after voting ends in the two states.

Voting for the Maharashtra assembly election and the Jharkhand assembly election will conclude today. The election results for both states will be announced on November 23. A host of poll agencies and television news channels will attempt to predict the election results with exit poll results. The results of the exit polls are expected to pour in soon after voting ends in the two states. Here's a glimpse of how accurate exit polls were in 2019.

Solapur: People wait in a queue to cast votes at a polling station during the Maharashtra assembly election. (PTI)

Jharkhand exit polls

The Jharkhand election 2019 took place between November 30 and December 20, 2019. The United Progressive Alliance (UPA), comprising Congress and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, won the election. Hemant Soren-led JMM won 30 seats, BJP won 25 and the Congress won 16 seats.

The India Today-Axis My India gave an edge to the JMM-Congress-led UPA. It said the UPA would win 43 seats, whereas the BJP would win 27.

ABP-Voter predicted a hung assembly. It said the UPA would win 35 seats whereas the BJP would win 32 seats.

Times Now predicted 44 seats for the UPA and 28 for the BJP.

Maharashtra assembly election

In the Maharashtra assembly election 2019, the BJP won 105 seats, the undivided Shiv Sena won 56 seats and the undivided NCP won 54 seats. The Congress won 44 seats.

India Today-Axis had predicted 166-194 seats for the NDA (Shiv Sena and BJP) and 72-90 seats for the UPA (Congress-NCP).

News18-IPSOS predicted 243 seats for the NDA and 41 for the UPA. Republic-Jan Ki Baat predicted 216-230 seats for the NDA and 52-59 seats for the NDA. Times Now predicted 230 seats for the NDA and 48 for the UPA.

ABP News-C Voter predicted 204 seats for the NDA and 69 for the UPA.

What the Election Commission said about exit polls

After most of the exit polls erroneously predicted Congress victory in the recent Haryana election, several parties had raised doubts over the counting process. Recently, Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar cleared the air.

He said the media, particularly electronic media, need to introspect about the expectations that arise due to exit polls.

“Because of expectations set by exit polls, a huge distortion is created. This is an issue that needs self-introspection, especially for electronic media,” he said as he called on self-regulatory bodies such as the National Broadcasters Association (NBSA) to regulate the media entities.

Kumar said that the Election Commission of India was not responsible for governing exit polls under the law but over the last few elections, a trend had emerged wherein news channels start displaying results from 8 am.

“When counting begins, results start coming in from 8:05 to 8:10 which is nonsense. My first counting begins at 8:30 am. Are these trends that are given at 8:05 am, and 8:10 am given to justify the trends of the exit polls? When counting begins at 8:30 am, the results of the first round cannot come before 9:05 am or 9:10 am. We upload that to our website at 9:30 am, and then 11:30 am and then 1:30 pm. Maybe a correspondent was there in the counting room and thus you got it earlier. But while counting, for every round, the result must be displayed and it must be signed by officials. How can it then come before 9:05-9:10 am?” he said.