World Environment Day: Key climate meet to begin in Germany's Bonn today

As the world inches closer to breaching global warming by 1.5 degree Celsius, the meeting is expected to lay down the groundwork for a strong outcome on crisis.

An important meeting is set to begin in Bonn in Germany on Monday, celebrated as World Environment Day, which will set the agenda for the next United Nations climate summit scheduled to be held in Dubai towards the end of this year.

The technical discussions on the global stocktake of Paris agreement are expected to end at Bonn (PTI)

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As the world inches closer to breaching global warming by 1.5 degree Celsius, a goal of the 2017 Paris climate pact, the Bonn meeting is expected to lay down the groundwork for a strong outcome on the climate crisis.

The technical discussions on the global stocktake of Paris agreement are expected to end at Bonn. They will set the tone for political discussions to begin. The world is currently not on track to meet the goals of the Paris pact that wants to limit global temperature rise within 2 degrees compared with pre-industrial times and make efforts to contain it to 1.5 degrees.

The planet would warm by 2.7 degree by the end of this century is no significant action is taken, according to United Nations Environment Programme. The World Meteorological Organisation warned on May 15 that there is a 66% chance that annual global surface temperature will exceed 1.5 degrees at least once in the next five years.

The climate summit has to not only inform the wide gap in emissions reductions needed globally, but also get political consensus to put the world back on the Paris Agreement track. The Bonn climate talks are halfway to the annual summit, also known as the 28th Conference of Parties, or COP28. It will determine what will finally find its way to the summit’s decision text at the end of the year, experts said.

We already know that at COP28, we need a deal to get global climate action back on track, Tom Evans, policy advisor of think tank E3G’s climate diplomacy and geopolitics programme, said at a briefing last week. COP 28 needs to deliver outcomes on emissions reduction, fossil fuel phase-out and making climate finance and the loss and damage fund a reality, he said.

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The global stocktake in Dubai will take place in the backdrop of the United Arab Emirate’s contentious presidency. Over 130 lawmakers from the European Union and the US have urged the removal of oil executive Sultan Al Jaber as the president of COP28. Al Jaber is also the chief executive of state oil giant Abu Dhabi National Oil Corporation. Some experts say his country is stuck in a credibility crisis due to its fossil fuel political economy, which could be countered at Bonn.

The diplomatic push toward phasing out fossil fuels is another critical area that will have to be addesssed at COP28 and the groundwork for that has to be laid out in Bonn, experts said. Following the Petersberg Climate Dialogue in Germany attended by climate envoys of 40 countries last month, experts pointed out that the UAE carefully avoided endorsing a shift away from using fossil fuels, instead endorsed phase out of fossil fuel emissions.

Climate experts and activists have said countries are trying to protect their fossil fuel interests and cleverly framing the overall climate action goal so that they can continue the use of fossil fuels.

We need to address the emissions that are happening today. What we are saying is let’s have the solutions on table that real things are going to happen today to get us back on track so that’s why we are saying let’s focus on addressing emissions. Let’s not have ideological discussions, COP28 director-general ambassador Majid Al Suwaidi said in an interview to HT last week on fossil fuel phase-out.

Diplomacy is often the art of brinkmanship. There is time to get COP28 in shape, but the next two weeks are key. Al Jaber has to meet the moment and lay out the contours of a Dubai deal. If he doesn’t, he won’t bend the conversation away from his fitness for office. If we ever needed a Bonn bounce, it’s now, Rachel Kyte, dean of the Fletcher School at Tufts University in the US, said in a statement.

The G7 communique issued last month also did not show ambition on phasing out fossil fuels or a just energy transition in developing countries. G7 countries only said developed world would start delivering on its promise of $100 billion per year during 2020 to 2025 from this year. It also justified investments in gas.

We stress the important role that increased deliveries of LNG (liquified petroleum gas) can play and acknowledge that investment in the sector can be appropriate in response to the current crisis and to address potential gas market shortfalls provoked by the crisis, the communique had said while calling for all emerging economies to set a goal of net zero emissions by no later than 2050.

This is unlikely to be accepted by developing countries, including India and China. Climate experts are waiting to see G20’s communique on climate mitigation expected in September. India has the G20 presidency this year.

The issue of mitigation cannot be addressed without climate finance or the means for implementation which will also be key at Bonn. Finance is the biggest header for climate politics in 2023. For our collective progress in the year of the global stocktake to line up with considerations of equity, the spotlight must be on finance in various concrete forms, said Avantika Goswami, programme manager of climate change at the Centre for Science and Environment, an advocacy group.

Bonn is a crucial session where discussions will be held on assessing the progress on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, preparing for and dealing with the impacts of worsening storms, droughts and rising seas, said Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy at Climate Action Network International, a collactive of non-profits. The onus of success of this round of climate talks is on the rich industrialised nations, who have not yet demonstrated leadership on taking up their fair share of climate action.

For emerging economies like India, climate finance will top the agenda at all discussions. It is estimated that $4 trillion per year needs to be invested in renewable energy until 2030 to be able to reach the goal of net zero emissions by 2050. An investment of at least $4-6 trillion per year will be needed for a global transformation to a low-carbon economy, India’s environment minister Bhupender Yadav said in his speech at the HT G20 Agenda while highlighting that developed countries who agreed to mobilise $100 billion funds for mitigation efforts in developing countries couldn’t yet fulfil the promise.

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Climate action will also find it difficult to move ahead without adequate climate finance. For now, the international community is divided over the definition of climate finance. This has created an ambiguity in both the funding of climate projects and determining the amount required for it, Yadav had said. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has operationalised only a working definition so far.