Covid vulnerability may increase in October-November, Centre indicates
Without mentioning the third wave, the threats of which are looming large in India, the Centre on Thursday said that the country's Covid vulnerability may increase in October, November. Several projections earlier stated that the third wave of the pandemic may hit the country during that time. However, with over 62% of the population partially vaccinated, the situation will be different from the first and the second wave.
The coming two, three months are crucial as whenever any surge is seen anywhere in the country, it has to be curbed immediately, Niti Aayog member (health) Dr VK Paul said during the press meet of the Union health ministry. On the question of increased vulnerability later this year, Dr Paul said projections say October and November are the most crucial months. "There are enough data regarding this in the public domain. These are also the months of festivities and flu. We have to exercise special caution regarding these two months," Dr Paul said. "Even if there is any small surge, it should not be allowed to grow," Dr Paul said adding that festivities have to be kept at a low key.
While the focus will be on preventing the infection through social distancing and vaccination, administration on the other hand must be increasing their capacity to handle any future rise. “Now we know better how to provide care and treatment in home isolation,” Dr Paul said.
The Covid situation in the country is stabilising with the weekly positivity rate for the last 11 weeks is below 3%. The situation of Kerala has also improved, though 68% daily cases are still being reported from Kerala, the health ministry said. "We have been seeing some decreasing infections in Kerala. Other states are also on the path of averting future surge. However, festivals are approaching and sudden increase in population density creates a conducive environment for virus spread," Dr Balram Bhargava, director-general of the Indian Council of Medical Research said.
The word of caution from the Centre comes amid reports of antibodies dropping massively within four months of the Covid shot. A recent study of 614 fully vaccinated health workers in India revealed that within four months of the first shot, there is a huge drop in antibodies.