E-Paper
Deaths in India remain above pre-Covid rate, fertility rate below replacement: SRS report
The somewhat worrying trend in the crude death rate is that it remains above the level of 6 seen in 2019 and 2020.
A death rate still higher than pre-pandemic levels and a total fertility rate below the replacement level for the fifth straight year were some of the highlights of the Sample Registration System (SRS) reports for 2024, released Thursday by the Office of the Registrar General of India (ORGI) that works under the ministry of home affairs. SRS reports are based on a sample survey and are considered the most reliable annual estimates of vital statistics.
The 2024 SRS report shows that India’s crude birth rate –the number of births per thousand population– was 18.3 in 2024, down from 18.4 in 2023. The number declined from 14.9 to 14.7 in urban areas and from 20.3 to 20.2 in rural areas. There was also a marginal improvement in the sex ratio at birth, or the number of girl children born per thousand male children. Sex ratio at birth –– it is averaged over three years –– increased by one point from 2021-23 to 918 in 2022-2024.
While the birth rate declined, the number of children a woman was expected to have over her reproductive age, or TFR, remained flat at 2023 levels at 1.9. This was also the case in rural and urban areas, where the number remained flat at 2.1 and 1.5. To be sure, unlike birth rate, TFR levels change slowly. The interesting thing about the TFR number is that it remained below the replacement level of 2.1 –a sustained TFR of 2.1 means a steady population– for the fifth consecutive year, and at the replacement level for the second consecutive year in rural areas. In urban areas, the number has been below the replacement rate every year after 2005.
While the needle moved in birth rate, the number of deaths per thousand population –– crude death rate or CDR –– remained flat at 6.4. To be sure, this was largely due to rural areas, where the number remained flat at 6.8. In urban areas, the death rate declined from 5.7 in 2023 to 5.6 in 2024. Similarly, infant mortality rate –– deaths of children under one year of age per thousand live births –– continued to decline, although slowly. The number declined from 25 in 2023 to 24 in 2024.
The somewhat worrying trend in the crude death rate is that it remains above the level of 6 seen in 2019 and 2020. This is worrying because the death rate shot up to 7.5 in 2021, the deadliest year of the Covid-19 pandemic. While the 2024 number is well below that peak, it is still not down to the levels seen before the pandemic-related spike.
The cause of death statistics from the SRS similarly show that the proportion of deaths from respiratory infections was still higher than pre-pandemic levels. The number was 5.7% in 2022-24 (this number is available as a three-year average), much below the 9.3% figure in 2021-23 and the recent peak of 10% in 2020-22, but still above the 3.6% figure in 2017-19 and 4.9% figure in 2018-20.
The marginal decline in the proportion of deaths from respiratory infections, however, meant that the share of deaths from motor vehicle accidents rose from 2.9% to 3.2%, and those by suicide rose from 2.5% to 2.8%. While the SRS does not give an absolute number of deaths by cause, the Accidental Deaths and Suicides in India (ADSI) for 2024, released by the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) under the home ministry, also shows rising deaths from suicide and motor vehicle accidents.
Similarly, the proportion of deaths from non-communicable diseases increased from 56.7% and 60.1% as the share of deaths from respiratory infections decreased. The share of cardiovascular diseases or diseases related to the heart and blood vessels, which is the biggest cause of death among the 27 listed in the report, increased from 31% to 32.1%. To be sure, the share of cardiovascular diseases in total deaths had not decreased even at the height of the pandemic. This is expected, as COVID-19 is believed to have increased the morbidity from cardiovascular diseases.
