Covid-19 lockdown 3.0: Graded easing of curbs over 2 weeks

The guidelines also stipulated that individuals engaged in non-essential activity shall not move out between 7pm and 7am; and the elderly, those with co-morbidities, pregnant women and young children would stay home.

With India’s extended 40-day lockdown drawing to an end on Sunday, the Union government has decided to extend the lockdown for another two weeks. But this has been accompanied with a range of relaxations, in varying degrees, across India’s red, orange and green zones to gradually allow businesses and individuals to resume their normal life -- even while protecting the most vulnerable.

Experts too argued that while the easing of restrictions was welcome, this should have been greater in scope and states should have been allowed more leeway in determining zones and activities. (Photo by Sakib Ali / Hindustan Times)

In a detailed order on Friday evening, the ministry of home affairs issued guidelines for the range of activities which are to be permitted and prohibited in different administrative jurisdictions; reiterated that there would be a ban on regular air and rail travel and interstate transport; said educational institutions would remain closed, as would hospitality services and public places such as cinema halls and malls; and enhanced the scope of surveillance and treatment measures in containment zones.

The guidelines also stipulated that individuals engaged in non-essential activity shall not move out between 7pm and 7am; and the elderly, those with co-morbidities, pregnant women and young children would stay home. It also had detailed instructions on the precautions to be taken in workplaces and public places, with an emphasis on social distancing and use of face masks

The government, however, did not announce any simultaneous economic and fiscal package to manage the costs of the lockdown and provide relief to businesses, as demanded by industry bodies, which have praised the calibrated opening of the economy but re-emphasised the need for an immediate stimulus.

 

Experts too argued that while the easing of restrictions was welcome, this should have been greater in scope and states should have been allowed more leeway in determining zones and activities.

Industry bodies welcomed the easing of the restrictions, but reiterated their call for a support package. Chandrajit Banerjee, director general of the Confederation of Indian Industries, said that the government’s guidelines were well considered; the opening up of private officers will enable the resumption of service sector organisations; and permission to industrial activities is on the lines of what industry bodies had demanded.

But Banerjee added that with restricted economic activities, the imperative for a quick and forceful economic support package for industry was even more compelling now. “CII has suggested instituting a government spending package equivalent to 3% of GDP which would add ₹6 lakh crore to the available firepower. Enhanced debt to GDP ratio can be a way out for adding fiscal space at a time when the debt to GDP ratio is modest in India.”

The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) said that the order will allow for a “calibrated opening up of the economy”. Sangita Reddy, FICCI’s president, said that a regular assessment is required of the zones and activities to further open up the economy. “It is also now an opportune time for the government to come up with a financial package, especially for the MSMEs and the industry as a whole.”

The order comes five days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi had, in an interaction with chief ministers, asked for a detailed study of the impact of the lockdown and restrictions on red, orange and green zones — and said that life and economic activity in green zones will become a model. On Thursday, the health ministry did a fresh categorisation of these zones, which is subject to regular review. There are now 130 red zone districts, which according to a data analysis by Hindustan Times, are home to one-third of the country’s population and include major metros; 284 orange zones; and 319 green zones.

The home ministry order first provides a detailed definition of these different jurisdictions. A district is considered a green zone if there is no case of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19), or if no confirmed case has been reported in the last 21 days: red zones are categorised on the basis of total number of active cases, doubling rate of cases, extent of testing and surveillance feedback. All other districts are considered orange zones. While states and Union territories are allowed to upgrade a green zone to an orange zone, and orange to a red zone, they cannot downgrade the classification from red and orange to green zones. Containment zones shall be defined on the basis of mapping of cases and contacts, their geographical dispersion, areas with well demarcated perimeter and enforceability — and could range from a mohalla (neighbourhood) to a town in the case of urban areas, and from a village to a block in the case of rural areas.

Health protocol will become more strict in these containment zones. According to the order, 100% residents in these zones should have the Aarogya Setu App. There will be also be continued contact tracing, home and institutional quarantine based on risk assessment; testing of all cases with severe acute respiratory infection, influenza like illness and other symptoms; house to house surveillance; no movement of individuals in and out of these zones except for medical emergencies and supply of essential goods and services; and recording of details of people moving in and out of the perimeter.

The order then stipulates the range of activities that remain prohibited across the country. These include domestic and international air travel, all passenger movement by train, metro rail services, interstate movement of individuals, educational institutions, hospitality services, cinema halls, gyms, malls, entertainment parks, theatres, bars, and all social, political, and religious gatherings. All places of religious worship will remain closed. It also prohibits movement of individuals between 7pm and 7am for non-essential activities, restrictions on activities of those segments of the population considered more vulnerable to the infection. This will apply to all zones.

According to the order, here is what is not allowed in red zones — taxis, cab aggregators, cycle and auto rickshaws, barber shops and salons. But there are also now a range of activities that are allowed in red zones, which is a departure from past norms, when activities were more severely curtailed. Now, individuals and vehicles can move for permitted activities (in a vehicle, two people can travel besides the driver). A range of industrial establishments in urban areas — special economic zones, export oriented units, industrial estates and townships with access control; manufacturing units of essential goods and IT hardware; among others — can operate, while all industries in rural areas can function. Construction activity is now allowed, as long as workers remain on site. All standalone shops, neighbourhood shops, and shops in residential complexes — without any distinction between the essential and non-essential — can also function. E-commerce will, however, be confined to essential goods. Private offices can also now function, up to 33% of their strength, while all government offices will function up to the level of 100% above the rank of deputy secretary and 33% below that in red zones.

The order then defines the range of activities permitted in orange zones. While intra- and inter-district plying of bus transport will not be allowed, unlike the red zones, taxis and cab aggregators will be allowed to function here with one driver and two passengers. Inter-district transport in vehicles will also be allowed for permitted activities, with a maximum of two passengers and a driver in a four wheeler.

All activities will be allowed in green zones. Buses, too, can operate here at 50% capacity.

Experts believe that the government could have adopted a more nuanced approach and there should have been further easing of restrictions.

Ramanan Laxminarayan, director of the Centre for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy, said that the added value of restrictions had been diminishing for some time. “As cases increase, it is important to allow people to seek care promptly and my concern is that a lockdown could hinder health care access. There are still a high number of districts which are in red and orange zones, the categorisation of which is are based on how far testing has reached. This is not a reliable measure.”

Suyash Rai of Carnegie India said that while the relaxations were welcome, the approach was still too centralised, with the Union government essentially determining which districts fall under which zone and also deciding on the list of permitted activities. “Given the diversity among the states, it would have been better to decentralise such decisions, especially after six weeks of a nationwide lockdown. The Union government should have issued an advisory and left it to the states to decide.”

Rai also pointed out that with most of the major commercial centres in the red zone, economic activity will continue to be substantially restricted. “We need to learn to get back to work while managing the risks around Covid-19. Government action needs to be supplemented by individual responsibility, community based prevention, and adaptation by firms and other establishments. Lockdown is not a sustainable response.”